| Since the beginning of China’s housing system reform in1998, the real estate ofour country is developing rapidly, the real estate industry not only constructed a largenumber of housing, improve our living conditions, but also absorbed a large amountof labor. Industy of the iron and steel, cement, decoration is closeed to industry ofthe industry of the real estate, and the industry of the real estate become one of themost important industries in our country economy. However, house price go high, realestate finance, and bank credit influence the economic and financial influence. Evenin2011, national real estate loans amounted to10.73yuan, an increase of13.9%. Thereal estate developers is in low own fond proportion. China’s real estate developmentand construction, investment the majority of the lack of funds, according to statistics,about80%of China’s real estate development funds is directly or indirectly was givenby the bank, and amounts to90%individuals buy a house people through mortgageloan. This means that the real estate market is in the most risk on financial institutions,making China’s real estate finance facing higher financial risk; the three is theCommercial Bank of excessive competition. The individual housing loan is still theasset quality of banks. In order to gain more market share, some commercial banktake alternative, disguised or illegal practices, reduce loan standards, reduceexamination steps, relax the authenticity verification, affect the safety of bank assets.With China’s real estate and financial becoming closely linked, some problemsemerged: the price of real estate rise rapidly, bubble degree is higher, the real estate ofour country depended financial highly, the accumulation of a large number offinancial risk. China’s financial stability and security is threated.Once the real estatebubble burst, China’s real estate market will be a serious recession, and the financialindustry will appear problem, our entire financial stability will be destroyed,threatening the security of national economy.From the point of view of dynamic general equilibrium, this article attempts totake the real estate、finance together, the model included a real estate, enterprise, household, financial institutions, government, analysis of China’s real estate andfinancial relations and economic fluctuations on the impact of real estate. Throughreal estate mortgage loans, housing purchase housing Shoufu loan credit constraints,financial credit to real estate and macroscopical economy, the financial acceleratoreffect on real estate lending rate determine, central bank credit supply and currencyissuing to simulate the real estate and china’s ecomony. The research contents andmethods mainly include the following four aspects:1) Credit constraint, real estate and macroscopical economic simulation.We carrythe real estate credit constraint to the economy, we assume that the enterprises andhouseholds will be faced to capital shortage situation, enterprises need mortgage theirreal estate to obtain credit funds, through Shoufu housing loans ordinary household topurchase, in this a process, whether business or household, both break through thelimitations of funds and expanded its investment and consumption ability, making thereal estate through financial participation into the economy, credit constraint enlargedthe economic fluctuations.2) The financial accelerator mechanism of real estate and macroscopicaleconomic simulation. The enterprises and households are heterogeneous in Economy,due to individual faces different risks, when they borrow from a bank, bank lendingon different rates, led to its economy in the face of external changes will occurdifferent reaction, the real estate lending process through the financial acceleratorresponse.3) The real estate bank credit on the macroeconomic impact simulation. In ourcountry, the real estate credit share in bank lending volume proportion is bigger, thereal estate investment, purchase, sales fluctuations through the credit transmission,the impact on the economy is increasingly apparent, bank credit and loan interest ratefluctuation to influence including real estate and macroscopical economy, this is usthe main problems.4) The central bank monetary shocks, real estate and macroscopical economy interactive simulation. China is a country with governmental dominant economy, thecentral bank has an important role on the government’s monetary policy, the centralbank controls the issuance of currency and the amount of credit in the economy,commercial bank’s loan interest rate conctrolled by the central bank, The role of thecentral bank introducing, we can analysis our country economy fluctuant cause offormation, find out the real estate and the monetary policy of the relation.We find that: the real estate rigid with the sudden increase in demand on theeconomy is an adverse impact, impact pushed up housing prices, attracted a largenumber of resources to real estate, caused economy borrowing resources from theproduction areas to the ordinary household, large credit funds into the unproductiveareas, blow to the economy. Technology shocks to the real estate price is the impetus,and impact of technology on economic has a lasting impetus, the inflation rate in caseof a shock exhibited a lower level. Inflation has great harm to economy, output,investment, real estate consumption variables such as affected by rising inflationimpact significantly decreased, longer duration. Increased spending for investment,capital stock, outputs are obvious stimulation effect, achieve the growth process, butthe cycle is very long. The economic explanation for most of the two factors is thecentral bank deposit reserve rate and inflation, becomes the entire model variancedecomposition of the main explanation.The paper’s innovation mainly has three: Firstly, real estate is introduced tomacroeconomic model. Real estate has multiple attributes, it make the real estate havea different role in the whole economy, analysis the action of real estate in the ineconomy. Secondly, analyse real estate and financial relationships in the macroscopiceconomy, credit restraint mechanism amplify the real estate investment andconsumption, the financial accelerator influence the real estate lending rate,commercial bank credit impact the real estate investment and economic fluctuation,the Central Bank’s interest rate and credit amount control economy influence. Fromthis four aspects, the relation of the real estate and macroscopical economic isanalysised. Thirdly, the DSGE method is applied in china. Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE) is one of the microeconomic foundation ofmacroeconomic models, can be observed throughout the economic system in theexternal shock variables after the changes, but also to the welfare analysis, thismethod is rarely used in China, but the combination of real estate are not many, thisarticle in this respect is a kind of exploration. |
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