Estimation Of The Consumption Elasticity Of The Floating Population In The New Period

Since the reform and opening up,the migrant population has become an important force in the labor market of China.Due to the restriction of household registration system or other factors,it has become a consensus that the consumption demand of migrant population in the inflow area is insufficient.However,As the economic development and urbanization of China enter a new stage,the consumption demand of migrant population is changing.This paper estimates the income elasticity of consumption of the migrant population to observe the change of consumption behavior of the migrant population in the new era,and estimates the future consumption potential of the migrant population.Using the national dynamic monitoring data of migrant population(2010-2017),this paper observes the characteristics of China's migrant population income elasticity of consumption in the new era from the household level.Using the national urban household survey data,this paper also estimates the income elasticity of urban residents,and then simulates the potential consumption of citizenization of migrant population.In addition,this paper also compares the consumption elasticity differences between urban migrant population and local residents under different consumption structures by using 2016 China urban labor force survey data,in order to explore the factors that hinder the increase of consumption elasticity of migrant population.The results show that:(1)Since the new period,the overall consumption elasticity of the migrant population has reached 0.67 with a significant upward trend.In 2017,the consumption elasticity of the migrant population has increased to 0.72,and the overall consumption behavior of the migrant population shows a tendency of“localization”.(2)Compared with the average consumption elasticity of urban residents(about 0.80),the consumption elasticity of the migrant population is still relatively low.The citizenization of migrant population has a strong consumption-driven role.The simulation based on consumption function shows that if consumption elasticity of migrant population is consistent with that of local urban residents,the total consumption driven by migrant population will reach 15.8 trillion yuan by 2030,equivalent to 9.3% of GDP in that year.Among them,the consumption growth directly driven by citizenization of migrant population will reach about 8trillion yuan,equivalent to 4.7 percent of GDP.(3)The consumption behavior of migrant population will approach that of urban residents.At present,the enjoying consumption elasticity and housing consumption elasticity of the migrant population are lower than that of the local residents.The main reason why the enjoying consumption elasticity of the migrant population is lower than that of the local residents is that the large rent pressure of the migrant population in the inflow area.The migrant population is not only a source of labor supply for urban economic development,but also an important consumer group.Promoting the consumption elasticity of the migrant population and releasing the consumption potential of them have profound implications for expanding domestic demand and transforming themode of economic development.Therefore,it is of great significance to continue to encourage labor mobility,improve the management system of migrant population,speed up the construction of new urbanization,reform Hukou system,and accelerate the citizenization of migrant population for future economic development.