The Impact Of School Grades On College Entrance Examination Results

College Entrance Examination is almost a necessary test for Chinese students to enter the university,and its performance is the most important factor to determine individual university entrance qualification.Therefore,the score of college entrance examination is the most important index to measure the output of high school education.As a result,how to get higher scores in college entrance examination has attracted wide attention.Using the theory of educational production function for reference,under the same conditions,more educational input can bring more educational output.A good school often enjoys a certain degree of comparative advantage in resource allocation.In the above context,students and their families show strong preferences in order to be able to choose a higher level of high school.The focus of this paper is: in reality,parents spend more money to help their children enter a better high school,whether it can effectively improve their college entrance examination results?This paper uses a regression discontinuity design to explore the causal relationship between senior high school grades and students' college entrance examination results.The regression discontinuity design is a kind of empirical method which can effectively analyze the causal relationship between variables by using real constraints,which is second only to random experiments.It can avoid the endogenous problem of parameter estimation and reflect the causal relationship between variables.This paper takes the competitive admission score line of each batch of schools as the thresholds of the design.Because of the special national conditions of our admission policy(that is,the local high school enrollment has a considerable amount of enrollment expansion students can enter higher-level schools in the form of lower than the competitive score line)and the multi-batch nature of high school admission(ordinary high school admission is divided into three batches according to the school level: one,three and four batches),so this is a problem of fuzzy regression discontinuity designs with multiple cutoffs.Overall estimates show that liberal arts students have a significant positive breakpoint effect,while science students do not have a significant effect.Thereafter,the test centers on the relevant data of liberal arts students.The validity test of model estimation has been passed: firstly,grouping variables(test scores)are not manipulated artificially;secondly,the control variables are continuous at the preset breakpoints,that is,the control variables can not explain the local change effect of the cutoff scores.Several robustness tests are also carried out in this paper.Firstly,in the estimation,different bandwidth is used to verify the robustness of the optimal bandwidth.Secondly,the false breakpoint test is used to ensure the irreplaceability of the preset breakpoint.Thirdly,the reliability of local polynomial regression using trigonometric kernels is verified by the results of parameter estimation.The test results support the reliability of the estimation.Thereafter,this paper estimates the sample segmentation points by grouping them separately.The result of sub group estimation of science students shows that the applicability of the model is still insufficient.The estimation of grouped sub-samples of liberal arts students shows that the positive cutoff local effect is significant among middle and higher schools,while the model effect between middle and low levels is low.Therefore,the results of this paper can provide reference opinions for education departments and parents of relevant students in terms of educational investment,and be beneficial to the formation of relevant decision-making programs.The results show that students interested in liberal arts should be encouraged to invest more in educational resources,especially those with relatively bad grades.Other students should make prudent decisions according to their own conditions.