Research On Target Deviation, Stop Loss Failure, And Strategic Overdraft Of Major Powers

Since the 18^th national congress of the CPC,with China's rising comprehensive national power and international influence,the overall strategic trend of China's diplomacy has shifted from keeping a low profile to striving for achievement.In recent years,with the introduction of specific policy measures,there appears to be a debate about the prevention of 'strategic overstretch' in the Chinese academic community.Looking through the history of international relations and the studies of international strategy,we can find that scholars often refer to 'strategic overstretch'and other concepts of similar implication when discussing the rise and fall of great powers.Based on the existing research results,this paper is intended to explain the formation of strategic overstretch.Concerning this problem,there are numerous research results in foreign academia,which can be classified into three basic types-that is the explanation from the term of realism,cognition and domestic politics.In contrast,Chinese scholars conduct their researches from the perspective of strategic elements,and the results are more targeted.However,both the foreign and domestic academic world have not yet paid attention to the impact of the implementation and adjustment of strategy on strategic overstretch.And it is suggested that we should inspect strategic overstretch from the whole development process of strategy.Thus we find that the formation pf strategic overstretch is directly related to the objective deviation in the making and practicing stage as well as the loss-cutting failure in the adjusting stage.It is concluded that the objective deviation and loss-cutting failure lead to the result of strategic overstretch.There is a before-and-after relationship between the two factors,and the loss-cutting failure is of fundamental and decisive significance to the formation of strategic overstretch.Furthermore,the emergence of the two factors is also related to some psychological inertia when making decisions.This paper summarizes these common psychological states as overestimating the threat of rivals,seizing the window of opportunity,the Concorde Dilemma,expecting success and maintaining the prestige.This paper applies case analysis and comparative method as well as process tracing method to verify the above hypothesis.It compares the different performance of United States in the Vietnam War and Great Britain in the Crimean War.The study on the causes of strategic overstretch is will promote a better understanding of the basic problems and elements of grand strategy.In terms of practical significance,the study will help us to better understand the reality and prospect of China's current diplomatic strategy,and provide us some valuable thinking for the transformation practices of China's diplomatic strategy.