Research On The Estimation Of Inland Waterway Scale Based On Low-carbon Economy

Under the background of developing green and low-carbon economy,constructing a strong transportation country,and implementing of the "Yangtze River Economic Belt" strategy and the "One Belt,One Road" initiative vigorously in China,the inland waterway transport meets a new development opportunity because of its advantages such as large volume,low cost and low emissions.In order to adapt to the new concept and new situation of domestic economic development,meet the cargo transportation needs,and support the development of emission reduction work in the transportation industry,China will continue to strengthen the construction of the Inland Waterway,and carry out a series of the waterway scale improved projects.Based on this background,this paper estimates the inland waterway scale based on low carbon economy.The main research work is as follows:Firstly,based on the analysis of the concept of inland waterway scale,this paper confirmed that the waterway scale estimation in this paper focuses on the estimation of waterway depth,and put forward six main factors influencing the scale demand of inland waterway regulation from two aspects of driving factors and restrictive factors.Secondly,this paper analyzed the relationship between low-carbon economy and the the improvement of inland waterway scale,put forward the goals and principles of improving the inland waterway scale.And sorted out the idea of estimating inland waterway scale based on low-carbon economy which includes estimating the development potential of inland waterway,forecasting the water transportation volume,estimating the capacity of waterway,estimating the benefit of scale-up of waterway scale and decision-making of the waterway scale.Thirdly,selected “the stable waterway depth estimation method” to estimate the development potential of inland waterway,methods like elastic coefficient method to forecast the water transportation volume,and predicted the passage ship type and calculated the passage capacity of the waterway based on ship type demonstration.At the same time,constructed an evaluation index system from three aspects of channel scale adaptability,economic benefit adaptability and sustainable development adaptability,the indicators such as channel utilization ratio,economic benefit-cost ratio and carbon emission reduction benefit were slected,and constructed a decision model for inland waterway scale based on entropy weight TOPSIS.Finally,taked the WA section of the Yangtze River as an empirical study,analyzed the current situation of the waterway and shipping development and the necessity of waterway regulation in WA section.Through the calculation of the model,the optimal scale scheme of the waterway scale in WA section at this stage is 6.0 meters,which is consistent with the actual regulation scale of the waterway in WA section.This study provided a set of theoretical models for estimating the scale of inland waterway under new background conditions,enriched the relevant research in this field,and provided some reference for determining the reasonable scale of inland waterway regulation projects in China under the new situation.In addition,the content of this study was in line with the direction of domestic policy support,which strongly supported the implementation of several national strategies,was conducive to the further improvement of inland waterway transport network in China,and was conducive to the rational formulation of waterway development planning by relevant government departments and relevant units.