Research On Rural Heating Mode Based On System Dynamics

With the development of economy,heating in rural areas is very important to improve the living quality of rural residents.At present,rural heating is still mainly distributed heating,and central heating has just started.Moreover,there is a large gap in the rural economic development between different regions,and the overall situation is still far from the future planning of clean heating in rural areas.From the perspective of the change of rural heating structure,the coordinated development of rural economic development and ecological environment,this paper establishes the system dynamics model by combining qualitative and quantitative analysis,and discusses the rational and efficient development of rural heating structure under different policies and scenarios.Through the literature research and questionnaire survey form,the existing status of the rural way of heating in shandong province,heating composition and analysis research,development and change of shandong rural has been from the past rely mainly on biomass straw,wood burning,dung is given priority to,the development to the coal,electric power,biomass energy,solar,biogas and other complementary heating structure,part of the economic developed rural areas clean energy heating rate is higher.System dynamics method,is adopted to improve the rural heating,economic construction,the ecological environment system analysis,using Vensim simulation software in shandong province rural heating dynamics model is established,in shandong province rural border,mainly including population,economy,heating mode and the requirements on environment,policy factors,these factors are intertwined,and influence each other.Starting from the relationship among factors,the system is divided into four subsystems,including population development subsystem,environment subsystem,economic development subsystem and heating subsystem,and the influence scope,influence mechanism and influence degree of multiple elements in the system are analyzed,so as to build the influence set.The demand and consumption structure of rural heating are predicted by simulation under different development modes,and the main factors affecting the balance of supply and demand of rural heating and the structure of heating mode are analyzed.In addition,the model simulation from 2008 to 2018 was compared with the actual situation,as a feasibilitytest of the system.In heating mode of the main factors that influence the system dynamics model to find out as control variable,by adjusting the parameters and structure of different scenarios,set the status quo continue,rapid growth,under the condition of resource saving type of environmental protection and sustainable development of the integrated model four scenarios for the next 10 to 15 years to forecast the changes of simulation and analysis,the results showed that: In the comprehensive model of sustainable development,the rural population will drop to 38 million in 2035,which is basically close to the development planning requirements of the rural economy in our province.The urbanization rate is close to75% and the GDP trend is good.After 2023,the growth rate of total carbon emissions tends to flatten out.Therefore,this scenario can meet the requirements of economic development,heat supply demand and environmental benefits,and is the optimal balance plan.According to this plan,some policy Suggestions are put forward for the future development and comprehensive construction of rural heating.