Research On The Forecast Of Passenger And Cargo Throughput Of Guiyang Longdongbao International Airport

Guiyang Longdongbao International Airport is the largest airport in Guizhou Province and an important airport hub in the Southwest.Airport passenger throughput and cargo throughput are an important indicator of the development of a region and also affect how the airport can effectively allocate resources.Accurately forecasting the passenger and cargo throughput of Guiyang Longdongbao International Airport can better promote the economic development of Guiyang and related regions and provide reference for airport construction.This paper takes the passenger and cargo throughput of Guiyang Longdongbao International Airport as the research object.Firstly,on the basis of combing the literature and understanding the development of air transportation in Guizhou Province,the purpose,significance and research ideas of this paper are put forward.Secondly,it introduces the economic and social development of Guiyang Longdongbao International Airport and Guiyang City,and uses the principal component analysis method to evaluate the economic and social development level of Guiyang Longdongbao International Airport and Guiyang City,and analyzes the coordination between the two by static coordination index.Thirdly,according to the current situation of Guiyang Longdongbao International Airport,combined with economic development and ground transportation environment,the factors affecting passenger and cargo throughput of Guiyang Longdongbao International Airport are qualitatively analyzed.Different from the previous methods of selecting the variables such as least squares method and stepwise regression,the Adaptive-lasso method is used to quantitatively analyze the key factors affecting the cargo and passenger throughput of the airport.Finally,,the ARIMA model,the grey prediction model,the ARIMA-grey prediction combination model,and the Adaptive-lasso gray neural network prediction model were used to construct the The forecasting model of passenger and cargo of Guiyang Longdongbao International Airportthe with the data of airport passenger and cargo throughput from 1995 to 2016,and compare and predict the prediction effects of the four models.The following conclusions are obtained:1.Analyzing the economic and social coordination between Guiyang Longdongbao International Airport and Guiyang City,it is found that the investment in Guiyang Longdongbao International Airport should be increased to coordinate with the economic and social development of Guiyang City.2.The six key factors affecting the passenger throughput of Guiyang Longdongbao International Airport by using the Adaptive-lasso method are: fixed asset investment in the whole society,per capita disposable income of urban residents,total retail sales of social consumer goods,added value of tertiary industry,total industrial output value and turnover of highways passengers.The three key factors affecting the cargo throughput of Guiyang Longdongbao International Airportby using the Adaptive-lasso method are the total retail sales of social consumer goods,the turnover of railway passengers,and the turnover of road passengers.3.Comparing the prediction relative errors of the four models,it is concluded that the prediction effect of the Adaptive-lasso gray neural network prediction model is better than the ARIMA-grey prediction combination model,the gray prediction model and the ARIMA model.The Adaptive-lasso gray neural network prediction model is used to forecast the passenger and cargo throughput of Guiyang Longdongbao International Airport in 2017.the predicted value is less than the actual value of the passenger and cargo throughput of the airport in 2017.The predicted value has a small error from the actual value.