Research On The Population Health Effects Of Black Carbon And PM_2.5 In Beijing

In recent years,the heavy air pollution events in Beijing have become attention hotspot for international society.The adverse health effects of air pollution have also become a daily concern of the public.In response to air pollution,the State Council of China promulgated the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan?Action Plan?on September 10,2013.Since then,the annual average concentration of PM_2.5.5 in Beijing has dropped from 89.5?g/m³ in 2013 to 51?g/m³ in 2018.Except for the total effect,this study comprehensively also evaluates the health effects of black carbon?BC?and PM_2.5.5 on respiratory system and cardiovascular health from the aspects of susceptible subgroups and emission reduction measures.To quantitatively analyze the health effects of BC and PM_2.5,a semi-parametric generalized additive model?GAM?of time-series study was used to calculate the exposure-response relationship between BC,and PM_2.5.5 and daily cardiopulmonary disease mortality from 2005 to 2016 in Beijing.At first,we estimate the short-term cardiovascular health effects of BC and PM_2.5.Then,we analyze the modification effects of natural factor and social factor,by classifying people into sex,age and educational attainment.Lastly,we assess the cardiopulmonary health effects of both the short-term and long-term emission reduction measures in Beijing.?1?The results showed that BC was significantly associated with cardiovascular disease?CVDs?mortality.For ease of comparison with previous study,we analyzed BC and PM_2.5.5 by using two concentration change measurement units,interquartile range?IQR?and 10?g/m³.An IQR increase in BC?5.7?g/m³?and PM_2.5?64.5?g/m³?were associated 2.70%?95%CI:2.20,3.21?and 4.06%?95%CI:3.47,4.65?increases of CVDs mortality,respectively.For a 10?g/m³ increase,the values of BC and PM_2.5.5 were 4.79%?95%CI:3.69,5.91?and 0.74%?95%CI:0.63,0.85?,respectively.That means,the health effect of BC is lower than PM_2.5.5 in the true atmospheric environment.When adjusted for NO₂ and SO₂,the effects of BC remained statistically significant.It also showed the difference between BC and PM_2.5when it comes to the modification effects of age,gender and educational attainment.These findings provide valuable evidence to the rare studies of the exposure-response relationship of BC with human health in developing countries.?2?Different susceptibility showed in different subgroups,whose excess risks?ER?were range from 0.23%⁰.71%.A much higher ER has been found in the subgroups of age 60⁷4years,female and illiterate.However,it showed that elderly?60+?women accounted for 66.2%among the illiterate.In order to isolate the possible interference of natural factors in the classification of social factor,distractions of elderly and female has been removed,but ER of illiterate were still greater than those with higher education attainment level.Adverse health effects of the lower education attainment level subgroup may be increase when the modification effects of age and sex are overlay on it.It is necessary to give priority attention to those people who have the dual susceptibility of both natural factor and social factor.?3?The comparison of health effects before and after 2013?Action Plan has been launched?showed that for respiratory and cardiovascular diseases,a much higher health risk has been found before 2013.Before the long-term emission reduction started?2009²013?,an IQR increase in BC?2?g/m³?and PM_2.5?44.75?g/m³?were associated 1.017 and 1.016 increases of respiratory diseases mortality,1.011 and 1.010 increases of CVDs mortality,respectively.After the long-term emission reduction?2013²016?,an IQR increase in BC?2.1?g/m³?and PM_2.5?33?g/m³?were associated 1.000 and 1.003 increases of respiratory diseases mortality,1.000 and 1.002 increases of CVDs mortality,respectively.?4?During 2009 to 2016,3 years moving GAM models results showed that the Relative Risks?RR?of BC and PM_2.5.5 are declined with fluctuation for respiratory diseases,RRs of BC and PM_2.5.5 are declined near linear for CVDs.For the short-term emission reduction periods?2008 Olympic Blue,2014 APEC Blue,2015 Parade Blue?,results of statistical and GAM model showed that they have limited implication with large uncertainties on cardiopulmonary diseases of Beijing residents.In summary,the long-term emission reduction measures of China have a significant positive health impact on cardiopulmonary diseases of Beijing habitants.The effort made by Chinese government has achieved some success and,air pollution prevention and control should keep continue to improve people health.