The Design Of The Risk Prediction And Control System Of Drilling Loss

Change the plan;Reduce drilling efficiency,increase input cost,cause damage to reservoir.Serious still can trigger the bad accident such as card drilling,blowout,even can cause the hole to be scrapped,cause casualties,cause irreparable loss.If can to security in the process of drilling leakage risk forecast and can real-time monitor and control,for preventing downhole accidents further deterioration and reduce the economic loss,improve the drilling speed and efficiency has important significance.It is controllable and uncontrollable for the leakage risk.For controllable risks,therefore,to find a can forecast risk,and reduce misjudgment and the probability of false negatives,for later can get timely control for risk has important significance.According to leakage mechanism analysis,balance of bottom hole pressure is to prevent the artificial fracture can be the main factors which the leakage risk occurs,so the bottom hole pressure real-time monitoring and control is particularly important.At present,advanced drilling technology is used abroad,but because of the high cost,it cannot realize the widespread industrialization promotion in China.At home,there are many deficiencies and limitations in monitoring precision,reliability,sensitivity and universality of the conventional ground monitoring methods.So this article puts forward a kind of economy applicable,timely and effective factors of bottom hole pressure is closely related to the real-time monitoring,and relying on ground form a complete set of equipment and instrumentation,set up corresponding to the risk forecast and control system.Therefore,this article through to affect the risk of leakage of the key factors,namely the bottom hole pressure is analyzed,and based on ground form a complete set of equipment and instrument,put forward a way to use engineering acceptance parameters combined with artificial intelligence technology to forecast artificially fractured loss risk,reduce misjudgment and the probability of false negatives,and to monitor bottom hole pressure,and establish the related control system,research and development of leakage risk forecast and control system,and obtained the results of the study are:1.In-depth study on the mechanism of leakage occurrence,and summarize the factors,characteristics and laws that affect the risk of human fractures.It is the main factor that the bottom-hole pressure is greater than the fracture pressure,and the bottom hole pressure is the most direct representation phenomenon.2.Based on the comprehensive logging parameters of the surface needle phenomenon which can quickly reflect the leakage risk,and the study on the mechanism of leakage,a mathematical model for the safety evaluation of artificial fracture risk is established.In addition,the SVR model is selected to predict the risk through the comparative study of the risk prediction method.3.Sensitivity analysis of control parameters is carried out by analyzing the principle and principle of control.The control method based on wellhead throttling is established.And the mathematical model of wellhead backpressure is established.4.The fuzzy PID control algorithm for the improved genetic algorithm is designed for the established wellhead backpressure model,and the backpressure control system is formed.The PID control and fuzzy adaptive PID control are compared with traditional genetic algorithm.The simulation and comparative analysis of the control system by MATLAB/Simulink show that the improved genetic algorithm has better effect on fuzzy PID control.5.According to the overall solution,system design based on Visual Studio software platform,develop a set of artificial fracture leakage risk forecast and control analysis system,more enough to achieve the function of risk early warning,for follow-up work to provide a basis for the control in a timely manner to reduce losses,finally the system is applied to the field test and analysis.