Simulation Of Ecosystem Services Based On System Dynamics

The rapid development of human society has captured a large number of natural resources,destroyed the original structure of the ecosystem,and greatly reduced the ability of ecosystems to provide services to humans.Sustainable Development emphasizes the coordinated development of human society and the natural environment,that is,protecting the ecological environment while developing the economy.Ecosystem services are the material basis and environmental conditions for the development of human society.At the same time,the level of ecosystem services also indicates the status of ecosystems.Therefore,maintaining the development of the economic level and ecosystem services at the same time is one of the goals of sustainable development.Studying the relationship between changes in ecosystem services and various natural and human factors and understanding the driving mechanism of ecosystem services can provide a reliable basis for the formulation of social development policies and promote Promote the process of sustainable development.As the third largest city in Shaanxi Province after Xi’an and Baoji,Xianyang City is one of the major agricultural and industrial bases in the Guanzhong Plain.and it is of great significance in driving the development of the surrounding areas in the Western Region.Based on the land use data of Xianyang City in 2000,2010 and 2015 and other basic data,the paper first calculates three types of ecosystem services:carbon sequestration,soil conservation,and water conservation.Firstly,based on the 2000,2010 and 2015 land use data Xianyang City and other basic data,calculated the carbon sequestration,soil conservation,water conservation three kinds of ecosystem services.Next,eight natural factors and eight human factors were selected respectively.The basic driving principles of the three ecosystem services were analyzed and selected using the basic principles of geographic sensors.Then,a system dynamics model of the ecosystem service-driven mechanism was established.The data for 2015 was simulated and accuracy analysis conducted,using the 2000 ecosystem services and human economic data.Finally,based on the 2015 data,different social development scenarios were set up to simulate the ecosystem services under various scenarios in the future 2050,providing reference for policy development of Sustainable Development,also ensuring economic growth in the future while ensuring that it is not at the cost of ecosystem degradation.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)Carbon sequestration services in Xianyang City continued to increase from 2000 to 2015,but the growth rate from 2010 to 2015 was much smaller than the increase from 2000 to 2010.The overall trend in soil conservation services kept increasing from 2000 to 2010 while showed a decreasing trend from 2010 to 2015.The amount of water conservation services in 2010 decreased by a small margin compared with 2000,and a significant increase occurred in 2015.(2)The dominant natural factors and human factors of the carbon sequestration service are the elevation and urbanization rates,and the impact factors are 0.4451 and 0.2043,respectively.The dominant natural factors and human factors for soil conservation services are slope and population respectively.The impact factors are 0.0834 and 0.0515,respectively.The dominant natural factors and human factors for water conservation services are land use and population respectively.The impact factors are 0.3147 and 0.2304,respectively.Geo-detector detection shows that the interaction of two factors has a greater influence on the spatial distribution of ecosystem services.(3)The results of 2015 demographic,economic,and ecological system services have consistent trends with the calculated data,and have high simulation accuracy,obtained from the simulation of Xianyang City ecosystem service driven model.(4)On the basis of the changes in the ecosystem services in 2050,it is founde that the enhancement of human activities will lead to the weakening of ecosystem services regardless of considering natural factors.The highest value of carbon fixation was found in scenario 4,the highest value of soil conservation service was in scenario 2,and the highest value of water conservation service was in scenario 3.