Evaluation Of Multiple Ecosystem Service Functions Under Different Dcenarios

The Yili River Valley is a relatively complete ecosystem function service area on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang,as well as an important area for building a national ecological protection barrier.And the Yili River Valley has a semi-humid environment,and the average annual temperature and precipitation in the Xinjiang area have been fluctuating upward in recent years.Tall mountains prevent the westerly wind belt from creating abundant precipitation in the Yili River Valley,and the analysis of the Yili River Valley’s ecosystem is standard and forward in the environmental problems faced by the entire arid and semi-arid area.The huge growth of land for urban construction and the unnecessary cultivation of woods and grasslands by humanity to transform agricultural land have led to a significant rise in CO₂environmental pollution as a result of the expansion of population and economy.The observation of ecological nature under land use transformation in the Yili River Valley,as a central pivotal belt of the land-based Silk Road,is a critical element for ecological structural reform.Based on the 2010and 2020 land use datasets of the Yili River Valley,this study uses the Patch-level Land Use Simulation（PLUS）model to simulate the future spatial and temporal patterns of land use in the Yili River Valley in2030,and portrays three different development scenarios based on policy guidelines.scenarios based on policy guidelines.These are the natural growth scenario,the economic development scenario and the environmental protection scenario.The Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs（In VEST）model was used to quantify four ecosystem services:water production,carbon storage,soil conservation,and nitrogen transport,and to analyze their trade-offs and synergistic responses under different scenarios.The study’s results showed that:（1）The PLUS model was developed to estimate the spatial and temporal separation trends of LULC in the Yili River Valley in 2010 and 2020,with the kappa coefficient of 0.9102 and Overall Accuracy of0.9481,and the accuracy was tested against real land use datasets in 2010 and 2020.It is being used to perform decision analysis in order for further analysis of ecosystem service work.（2）Soil retention and carbon storage in the Yili River Valley are predicted to be marginally weakened in the 2030 BAU scenario,whereas water yield in the urban planning land is expected to increase.Water yield,carbon storage,and soil retention all indicate a declining trend in the economic growth scenario,with the drop occurring mostly in the urban center zone.Carbon storage,water yield,and soil retention all display an upward trend in the ecological protection scenario,led to the advent of ecological ventures,yet there is an interconnection process among species,a trade-off of synergistic answer characteristics.（3）In the Yili River valley,there is a significant trade-off between carbon storage and nitrogen export,while water yield and soil retention have a significant synergic effect.According the scenario analysis,the Yili River Valley can focus on the extensive usage of building space,and the regeneration of vegetation on riparian zones and steep-slope farmland will greatly increase the Yili River Valley’s ecology process described.This information will help policy makers assess where ecological projects can be applied and enhance customer knowledge of how ecosystem service structures work in different scenarios.