A Study On The Dynamic Transmission Rate Of Hand, Foot And Mouth Disease In Anhui Province

Hand,foot and mouth disease(HFMD)is a common infectious disease,transmitted between children.Many young children have suffered it in China,and it widely spread in most of the countries and regions.The virus of HFMD is mainly the intestinal virus,including EV-A71 and CV-A16 virus and HFMD patients are mostly caused by EV-A71 virus in China.According to the data of nearly 10 years,nearly millions of people infected with HFMD every year,which also includes a small number of deaths.In order to our children can healthy growth,it is necessary to further understanding of HFMD and to research its propagation rules to help us make effective prevention and control measures.In this paper,according to the report number in anhui province,we establish time series susceptible infected and recovered(TSIR)model and simple mass model to estimate the transmission rate of HFMD with regardless virus type.We estimate the transmission rate of HFMD which cause by EV-A71 and CV-A16 virus by using cross protection SIR model.The transmission rate seasonality of HFMD was analyzed and the relationship between social factors(highway passenger traffic and school opening),climatic factors(average temperature,average pressure,relative humidity and rainfall)with the transmission rate seasonality was dissected.Our results show that: 1)The monthly average rate of an infected person infect a susceptible person are 9.83e-06,2.21e-04 and 9.40e-06 respectively;2)The transmission rate have obvious seasonality;3)Highway passenger have an impact on the transmission rate seasonality of HFMD which was estimated by TSIR model and cause by CV-A16 virus,other factors has no outstanding effect on it.Climatic factors(average pressure,relative humidity)and highway passenger have effect on the transmission rate seasonality of HFMD which cause by EV-A71 virus,other factors has no outstand effect on it.