Research On The Establishment And Optimization Of Infectious Information Model For Border Floating Population

Research by the WHO and other institutions have shown that infectious diseases remain the number one threat to human life.Because the pathogenesis,transmission mode,incubation time and cure methods of various infectious diseases are all different,not all of them can be expressed by simple models.Therefore,the analysis of the epidemic trend of infectious diseases must adopt the method combining theoretical analysis and numerical simulation.In the existing methods,the use of deterministic models of infectious diseases can carries on the preliminary analysis of the spread of disease.But in the border region,such as Yunnan border,geographical condition is complex,a variety of parameters of this model should be used to simulate the border,so a new simulation model need to be put forward to approximate the border the actual situation of the spread of disease.Firstly,the shortcomings of the traditional deterministic infection information model in simulating disease transmission are studied.In the simulation,it can be found that the traditional deterministic model does not involve population flow and the parameter setting method is relatively complex.In view of these shortcomings,this thesis extended the traditional deterministic model and added the parameter representation of population flow.Compared with the traditional model,the improved model has a higher adaptability.However,it still fails to overcome the inherent problems of the traditional deterministic model and fails to meet the needs of the simulation of the transmission of border infectious diseases.In view of the shortcomings of these models,this thesis also drew on the characteristics of various existing infection information models,and proposed a new model of infection information based on monte carlo method.It not only considers the incidence of each individual and the change of the incidence state,but also sets the parameters related to the population flow according to the characteristics of the actual population flow at the border,so that this model can not only simulate the incidence in the population,but also show the impact of population flow on the spread of disease in the population.Finally,by comparing the numerical simulation with the real border data,this thesis verifies that the improved certainty model is more accurate and more adaptive to the real situation than the ordinary certainty model.The new monte carlo-based infection information model proposed in this thesis not only simulates the incidence of an individual,but also simulates the flow of an individual.Moreover,it can be used to set relevant situations,such as crossing the border,according to the characteristics of Yunnan border.The new epidemic information model can better simulate the epidemic trend of infectious diseases.The model proposed in this thesis is used to simulate the spread of infectious diseases in the border of Yunnan Province.