Research On Risk Conduction Of Shadow Banks In China

Over the past decade,the changes in financial instrument innovation and regulatory rules around the world have made the shadow banking business a comparative advantage over traditional banks,and the existence of arbitrage opportunities has accelerated the development of shadow banking.The global financial system has undergone profound changes,and the market share of the traditional banking industry has been declining.At the same time,the risks of shadow banking products and business are gradually emerging.Due to the general contact between different financial institutions,it also has the possibility of risk transmission.In domestic,there are some research results on risk prevention,but the research on mechanism of risk transmission of shadow banking and measures to prevent risk transmission are not deepened.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the internal mechanism of shadow banking risk transmission and to construct the theoretical model of risk transmission of shadow banking.It can also innovative the risk management of financial industry in China and promote the healthy development of regional economy.Based on the domestic and foreign literatures on the risk transmission of shadow banks,this thesis follows the research methods of theoretical analysis and quantitative analysis.This thesis also summarizes the connotation,risk types,risk regulation and risk transmission mechanism of the shadow banking in China.Then,by using the GARCH-CoVaR model,this thesis systematically studies the risk transmission of the trust companies and securities companies in China's shadow banking.In the research process,the EViews7.2 special mathematical software has been used.The main research work is summarized as the narrowest,narrow and broad categories of shadow banks in China.This thesis analyzes the status quo of the development of shadow banks and the status of risk regulation in the narrowest sense.The first chapter and the second chapter are the introduction and the related theory,lay the foundation for the follow-up study.The third chapter is the development of the shadow banking institutions and business in the narrowest category of our country.It summarizes the main risks faced by the shadow banking at this stage,sums up and analyzes the regulations and systems of shadow banks in recent years,The overall structure of regulation.The fourth chapter,based on the elements of risk transmission,analyzes the connotation and object of the major risk transmission elements one by one,and finally constructs the mechanism of risk transmission in China.The fifth chapter is the empirical analysis,combining GARCH-CoVaR model with commercial banks,trust companies and securities companies as the object of empirical analysis,this thesis makes a empirical study on the time series of securities returns of listed companies,and obtains the conditional risk value and spillover risk value of the securities companies and trust companies.After empirical analysis,it is proved that the risk transmission risks exist in different industries in China's shadow banking industry,and the risk transmission risks between banking industry and trust industry are particularly prominent.When the trust industry suffers risk loss,the banking industry will also bear certain risk value.In the sixth chapter,based on the perspective of preventing risk transmission,this thesis puts forward the measures of risk prevention and control which are suitable for the development of China's shadow banking at the present stage.Chapter 7 summarizes and prospects for the full text.The main contributions and innovations of this thesis are as follows: Through the combing of the existing data at home and abroad,this thesis constructs the mechanism of the shadow banking risk transmission mechanism in China,and summarizes the connotation of the shadow banking including the most narrow sense,narrow sense and broad sense.Based on the idea of risk conduction of shadSow banking,the countermeasures and suggestion proposed in the last can provide reference for risk supervision,which has the value of progress on the practice.