Research On The Formation And Prevention Of Our Country’s Shadow Banking And Systemic Financial Risks

The rapid growth in the size and riskiness of Chinese shadow banking over the last decade has become the focus of macro policy researchers and central bank experts around the world.With the introduction of the country’s new regulations on capital management,the regulation of shadow banking will be carried out in the direction of unified standards,elimination of arbitrage,penetrating regulation and breaking rigid exchange,and the era of comprehensive regulation of shadow banking has arrived.However,due to the diversity and extensiveness of shadow banking participants,the difficulty of regulating shadow banking business is still on the rise.Considering that shadow banking itself is a supplement to the financing channels of small and medium-sized enterprises and the spillover of residents’ demand for wealth preservation and appreciation,it should be regulated while also playing a positive role in the economy.Over the years,regulators have paid much attention to the measurement of the scale of shadow banking and its impact on the systemic financial risk of the economy.Due to the peculiarities of China’s financial market and system,the forms of existence and risk propagation paths of shadow banking are quite different from those abroad.In the context of China’s regulatory authorities to comprehensively strengthen financial supervision and effectively prevent systemic financial risks,It is of great practical importance to study the systemic risk of shadow banking in China..Based on the current situation of shadow banking and financial innovation under the new economic situation in China,this paper considers the measure of shadow banking and systemic financial risk and the impact relationship between them from the perspective of economic management and government regulation.Based on the previous studies,this paper establishes the EVT-GARCH-Co Va R model based on value at risk and extreme value theory and the DSGE model including shadow banking to study the mechanism of the role of shadow banking and systemic financial risk,and measures the correlation between the scale of domestic shadow banking and systemic risk through empirical analysis.At the same time,this paper discusses the market equilibrium with the participation of shadow banks based on macroeconomic theory using the mainstream DSGE economic model framework,explores the behavioral orientation and economic parameters of various social sectors in the clearing state under the complex economic system,and theoretically analyzes the impact of shadow banking on various subjects in the financial system.This article then examines the possible path of systemic risk in shadow banking from the perspective of the interaction between macroeconomic actors and financial regulators,constructs a dynamic game model among shadow banking,financial regulation and financial innovation,and finally gives relevant regulatory recommendations.The value and innovation of this paper is to examine the relationship between shadow banking,financial risk and regulatory authorities in the framework of China’s financial system from a clearer and more comprehensive perspective through theoretical analysis and empirical testing.First,this paper innovatively combines extreme value theory and other methods to measure the size of shadow banking and systemic financial risk.Secondly,this paper uses the framework of DSGE model,a mainstream model of economics that incorporates shadow banking,to conduct behavioral analysis of various market sectors and empirically analyze the new status quo of current shadow banking development;finally,the role of the shadow banking system on systemic risk is measured empirically analyzed with data by measuring the value fluctuations of banks in the core position of China’s financial system.This study has good practical significance for enhancing the objectivity and scientificity of the evaluation of the systemic financial risk of shadow banks in China,and also provides a measurement basis and policy basis for assessing the systemic financial risk of shadow banks in the process of macroeconomic development in China.This paper argues that regulators should adopt more targeted regulatory instruments,strengthen shadow banking supervision of various types of financial institutions in a targeted manner,and establish a sound regulatory mechanism that is coordinated with macro and micro prudence,has penetrating effectiveness and is targeted to ensure that the overall risk of the shadow banking system is within the controllable range.