Analysis Of Energy Conservation Technology Progress "Double-edge Effect" Based On Dynamic CGE Model

At present,China is in an important period of accelerating urbanization and industrialization and building a moderately prosperous society in all respects.The rapidly developing economy needs a large amount of energy supply as the driving force for growth,which leads to the aggravation of the contradiction between energy supply and demand and the increasingly serious ecological environment.Energy saving technology progress as an important part of energy policy,the impact on the macro economy has a typical "double effect",on the one hand,in promoting economic growth and reduce the energy consumption intensity play an obvious positive effect,on the other hand also because of the existence of the energy rebound effect and cause the increase of energy consumption.Therefore,how to scientifically use energy and more effectively exert the advantage of energy conservation technology to ensure the implementation effect of energy policy has become an extremely important research topic in China.As an indispensable power source of production,energy has obvious advantages of technological progress,but its energy substitution difference and rebound effect reduce its energy saving and emission reduction to a certain extent.In view of this,this paper will explore the "double-edged effect" difference of different types of energy,and on this basis,make a balanced analysis of the "double-edged effect",so as to scientifically evaluate the macroeconomic effect of energy conservation technological progress.First of all,based on the research results of domestic and foreign scholars,this paper explores the "double-edged effect" mechanism of energy conservation technological progress,establishes a macro calculation model of energy rebound effect,and forms the theoretical analysis basis of this paper.Secondly,based on the relevant theory and method of energy CGE model,build contains six department of energy(coal,crude oil,refined oil,natural gas,gas and electricity),a total of 18 production of energy saving technical progress dynamic CGE model,and the model of production module(including energy saving technology progress situation),trade module,main module,balanced closed modules,macro economic variables and dynamic recursive module function equation set.Among them,the production module includes four input elements of labor,capital,energy and intermediate input,and adopts the seven-layer CES nested function to combine all input elements.At the same time,the energy elements were synthesized from the original 6 types of energy into 4 major energy synthesis products,and the functional model of saving technology progress of different types of energy was established respectively.Thirdly,the microeconomic SAM table is established according to the macro social accounting matrix(SAM)of 2012,and relevant operation parameters are calibrated and calibrated according to previous studies,forming the model program foundation of this paper.Furthermore,the assumed growth rate of China's labor force and capital accumulation rate were set as exogenous parameter variables,and three scenarios were simulated and analyzed respectively.The economic development path and energy consumption trend of China during the period from 2012 to 2020 when there is no energy-saving technology progress in all energy sources are simulated,and this is used as the benchmark for comparison.Scenario 2,the four energy sources(coal,oil,natural gas and electricity)present the scenario of energy-saving technology progress.Simulate different kinds of energy saving technology progress of macroeconomic variables,data and energy consumption as well as mark caused by the reverse effect,and the simulation results with the baseline scenario of macroeconomic indicators data,this paper compares and analyzes from the Angle of the bidirectional explore different energy efficiency of China's energy consumption and macroeconomic variables and the energy rebound effect influence the difference of the results,focusing on the tradeoff analysis of "double-edged effect",scientific assessment of a single energy saving technology for the comprehensive effects of China's economic and social development;Scenario 3: energy conservation technology progress scenario.When the energy sources of coal,oil,natural gas and electric power all have the concomitant energy-saving technology progress,the "double-edged effect" of improving the overall energy efficiency of China is further simulated.The research results show that :(1)the existence of energy-saving technological progress in different types of energy will,to some extent,promote the increase of output of all sectors in China and the overall economic growth of the macro economy,and significantly reduce the intensity of energy consumption.Among them,the oil and electricity efficiency enhancement effect is more remarkable;(2)when all four kinds of energy resources have energy-saving technology progress,the whole society has the optimal energy conservation and emission reduction effect.In particular,a single energy efficiency by 10%,either on their own energy consumption,or impact on other kinds of energy consumption are significantly less than 10% of the improvement of energy efficiency level,but at the same time four energy economical technical progress significantly effect on reducing energy consumption,and to a certain extent,improve the energy consumption structure,one of the primary energy consumption to reduce the degree of close to 10%,the secondary energy consumption reduce degree is more obvious,to clean energy and energy consumption;(3)different types of energy have the reverse rebound effect of energy-saving technical progress,which is all reflected in partial rebound,but there is significant difference in degree.Specific,all energy saving technology and progress of springback effect for part of the rebound,but the degree from strong to weak,in turn,for natural gas,electricity,petroleum and coal,and natural gas and electricity energy saving technical progress rebound effect fluctuates significantly,and when the four energy economical technical progress at the same time the springback effect is minimized,average rebound effect is 14.35%.(4)the combined effect of oil and power conservation technology is better than that of coal and natural gas.From the perspective of specific energy sources,the improvement of power conservation technology not only affects a wide range of energy consumption,but also changes to a large extent,but also has a large energy rebound effect,which affects its energy conservation and emission reduction to some extent.The progress of oil conservation technology has greater stability,which not only has a significant positive effect,but also has a low degree of reverse rebound effect,which can be used as a good energy efficiency improvement department.Comparatively speaking,the "two-edged effect" of coal and gas conservation technology progress is relatively weak,but its positive effect on macroeconomic development cannot be ignored.(5)the "double-edged effect" of energy-saving technology progress exists in different types of energy,but the comprehensive analysis results are all positive despite of great differences in degree.Therefore,it is of great significance to give full play to the advantages of energy conservation technology progress in energy conservation and emission reduction,and to implement corresponding incentive and restriction policies for different energy sources according to their differences and characteristics,for promoting economic growth,reducing energy consumption and carbon emission reduction.