| The development of aeronautical complex equipment is based on technology research and development,technological innovation,and high-tech applications.The industry is focused on the research and development of key technologies.With the successful development of key technologies,it will lead to a corresponding society.Economic and economic benefits,which in turn drove the tremendous development of the national economy,are also the key points for economic growth in some regions.At the same time,they are also pillar industries that compete for competition among various countries in the world.The development process of aerospace complex equipment is relatively complex.The development content includes multiple subsystems and numerous complex components.It fully integrates the contents of different disciplines and different technical fields.Because the connection relationships between the subjects in the development process are complex,as long as some of the projects are completed.The time delay will bring huge losses to the entire supply chain.Therefore,the analysis and control of schedule risks in the development of aerospace complex equipment is particularly important.Progress risk analysis is the premise of schedule risk management.Risk control is the final link and the most critical link in the risk management process.Firstly,the development status of China's aerospace complex equipment and the characteristics of the whole process of developing aerospace complex equipment will be analyzed,and the parameters and transmission of the basic elements of the random network according to the related theories such as GERT network,Mason formula and signal flow diagram will be introduced.Combining the characteristics of aeronautical complex equipment development,a network model for the development planning of aerospace complex equipment based on milestone events was established.Based on this,a GERT network model for the development progress risk transmission of aerospace complex equipment based on milestones was constructed,and aerospace complex equipment was developed.The progress time and variance of the aerospace complex equipment development process are obtained by analytical method.Based on the model,the schedule risk value is determined,and the progress risk of the entire project development is quantified.In addition,on the basis of analyzing the features of risk factors and the causes of risks in the development of aerospace complex equipment,the risk factors that cause the project schedule risks to be generated and changed will be taken as the main targets of the project schedule risk control,through the analysis of aviation complex equipment.On the basis of analyzing the connection structure of each task in the development process,the expert assessment method and the method of triangular fuzzy numbers are used to analyze the degree of influence of the milestone events in the development process of aerospace complex equipment on the schedule risk.The milestones that have the greatest degree of impact on the progress of complex equipment will be under the control of their development schedule risk in the development process,and relevant strategies and suggestions for the schedule risk control of the aerospace complex equipment development process will be proposed.Finally,the project schedule risk transmission situation will be analyzed by examples,and the degree of risk impact for each milestone event in the development process will be estimated,which lays the foundation for effective progress risk control in the later period. |
