Research On Risk Control Of Pension Project With Housing Reverse Mortgage

The aging of social population is increasing year by year in our country.The huge pension gap,as well as the large number of elderly people,put a lot of pressure on the government's finances.Nowadays,the real estate market is developing constantly.Under this situation,the new real estate market needs more,has the market competition ability,has the vigor,the examination rate weak group real estate market can obtain the favor more.Housing reverse mortgage endowment is a kind of financial innovation product,that is,the elderly can apply for the reverse mortgage loan from the financial insurance institution on the basis of owning their own property The home is mortgaged to a financial institution,which grants to the elderly,who can use the property to repay the loan upon his death or permanent removal.Through pricing theory,actuarial theory and life cycle theory,this paper carries out theoretical research and practical exploration on the risk of the housing reverse mortgage pension project by the position of the borrower.(1)Based on the extensive study of domestic and foreign literature and the characteristics and types of reverse mortgage,the reverse mortgage is divided into five categories,and the risk model of bank reserve discount cost is put forward.(2)Through the analysis of the risk factors of the housing reverse mortgage loan,the fluctuation of the real estate price has obvious positive correlation with the macroeconomic situation.When the macroeconomic condition is good,the real estate price is prone to fluctuate upward,such as the deterioration of the macroeconomic situation.Property prices are highly likely to fluctuate downward.Moreover,the positive correlation is a dynamic equilibrium and mutual influence.Not only the change of the economic situation will affect the real estate price,but also the change of the real estate price will affect the macroeconomic situation.(3)The average house price is positively correlated with the per capita disposable income of urban and rural residents.(4)The regression analysis shows that the regression coefficient of(R)is negative,that is,in the long run,the interest rate will have a negative effect on the commodity housing price,but the P value is 0.131 > 10,which indicates that the increase of the loan interest rate has no significant effect on the decline of the commodity housing price.(5)Through the two models of one-time payment and life-long payment,we can see that the amount of one-off payment is positively correlated with the initial value of the real estate,and it is positively related to the value appreciation rate of the real estate.The amount of life annuity payment is positively correlated with the initial value of property and the value added rate of real estate.(6)From the single life state model and the multiple life state model,it can be found that the loan receiving amount is proportional to the expected life.According to the model of single life and double life,the expected remaining life is directly proportional to the receiving amount;the comprehensive simulation analysis shows that the receiving amount is inversely proportional to the loan interest rate,is proportional to the fluctuation of house value,and is directly proportional to the initial value of the house.Is in direct proportion to the rest of the life expected.Through the research on the risk control of the housing reverse mortgage pension project,the elderly can have a quantitative understanding of the risk of the product before applying for the project,which has certain reference value.