Forecasting Travel Demand For Air And Bus Integration Service And Its Revenue Allocation

With the 'four vertical and four horizontal' high-speed rail network gradually open,the competition between civil aviation and the high speed train become more and more fierce.Facing the fierce competition from the high speed train,the airlines plan the existing route network again,and also develop new transport service to seize the travelers from surrounding cities.At present,there are two kinds of intermodal transport services for air passengers,namely integrated airline and high speed train,combined bus and airline mode.Cooperating with the railways and bus company,the airlines launch the integrated transportation service,which can not only take advantage of the advantages of railway and bus to expand the airport?s radiation,but also provide a better travel experience.The route selection of the integrated transport service has become the key problem for airlines to solve effectively.The combination of airlines,railways and buses to form a dynamic alliance,and establishing a reasonable revenue sharing are the basis for the steady development of the integrated transport services of air passengers.Based on the disaggregate choice theory,a multinomial logit model is established to investigate the mode choice behavior of intercity travelers among combined bus and airline mode,bullet train to high speed rail,bus to high speed rail.Stated preference(SP)survey is conducted for four city pairs from Xiaogan,Suizhou,Xiangyang,and Shiyan to Shanghai,respectively.The logit model is calibrated by the survey data for the four city pairs,and is then used to ascertain the key factors affecting travelers? mode choice and to estimate the modal split of intercity transportation market.The findings show that the access/egress time and the total monetary travel cost play an important role in the mode choice behavior of intercity travelers.Then,considering the affecting factors of combined bus airline mode of revenue sharing,such as initial input,risk sharing,innovative efforts,we establish new shapley value model adding the comprehensive affecting factors.The new model can effectively avoid the average distribution of shapley value distribution,so that the distribution is more fair and reasonable.