The Export Effect Of China's OFDI In "B&R" Countries Along

At present,in the background of "new normal",overcapacity,high-leverage and high-inventory,and other grim problems,make it faced with major test that the domestic economic structure adjusts and transforms,the complicated international political and economic situation makes it suffered from severe challenges that the domestic economic growth and reform.Under this circumstances,China's top leaders layout overall and strategically,on the inside,take “supply-side reform” as a breakthrough,tap the potentials of economic growth through institutional reform and innovation;on the other outside,take "The Belt and Road"(“B&R” for short)as traction,actively promote the "going-out" strategy through "two-wheel drive" mode of “combining organically investment with trade and investment driving trade”.From the perspective of "going-out" strategy,the focus transform from traditional trade-driving mode to two-wheel-driving mode of investment and trade.Therefore,discussion on the export effect of China's OFDI in “B&R” Countries along meets the needs of reality.In existing research works,for the export trade effect of OFDI,there are three totally different conclusions,such as promotion,substitution and other(promotion and substitution co-exist or no obvious relationship investment and trade).Further research shows that differences in conclusion may be related to the heterogeneity of OFDI motivation which includes resource-oriented OFDI,market-oriented OFDI,innovation-oriented OFDI and so on.At the same time,China's OFDI and export trade in in “B&R” Countries along show special difference.Based on the above angles,this paper carry out an in-depth and systematic study on the export trade effect of China's OFDI(including full-sample OFDI,resource-oriented OFDI,market-oriented OFDI and innovation-oriented OFDI)in “B&R” Countries along.This paper,firstly,sort out the relevant documents of OFDI and export trade,sum up the inadequacy of them and the necessity and significance of this study;secondly,structure the theoretical framework of OFDI influencing export trade,and then put forward the theory hypothesis accordingly;thirdly,distinguish motivation-different OFDIs through“triple standards”;construct spatial econometric model based on 2003-2015 panel data from “B&R” 67 countries,make an empirical analysis on the export trade effect of different motives of OFDI.The results showed that,overall,China's OFDI in “B&R” Countries along has effectively promoted the export trade;specifically,resource-oriented OFDI and innovation-oriented OFDI have promoted export trade,it consisted with the H2(resource-oriented OFDI promoting export trade)and H3(innovation-oriented OFDI promoting export trade),unexpectedly,market-oriented OFDI has also promoted export trade,the result challenged the H1(market-oriented OFDI replacing export trade);as to the OFDI's effect,resource-oriented OFDI's effect on export trade is stronger than market-oriented OFDI and innovation-oriented OFDI,and market-oriented OFDI is stronger than innovation-oriented OFDI.in addition,there has existed significant “spatial spillover effect” in process of China's OFDI in “B&R” Countries along effecting export trade.The results not only concern the overall layout of “The Belt and Road” strategy,but also provide theoretical and practical basis for differentiated investment and trade policies.