The Factors Analysis And Forecasting For Rural Logistics Demand In Jiangxi Province

The country has always attached importance to the development of the rural economy and the agricultural industry,a series of guidance documents and plans in different periods has made important deployments for the development of rural areas.As an important part of the rural economy,rural logistics under the background of the coordinated development of urban and rural areas has had a tremendous impact on the development of rural areas and even the entire region.In addition,in the special stage of development of the logistics,the development of urban logistics has encountered bottlenecks in terms of capacity and demand,and rural logistics has continuously assisted the development of the logistics industry by expanding the demand for logistics.Under the influence of these two conditions,more and more logistics companies have invested in the construction and optimization of rural logi stics,which also highlights the importance of research on rural logistics.The demand for rural logistics is an important feature of rural logistics.It directly shows the potential and opportunities for the development of rural logistics.The influencing factors of rural logistics demand,as an important content of rural logistics demand,directly indicate the direction and path of rural logistics development and improvement.Jiangxi Province has its own unique geography and hydrology conditions,and has an important position in grain production,aquaculture,and the output of fruits and vegetables.However,due to the inherent deficiencies in rural areas,the development of local rural logistics has encountered obstacles.Studying on the factors which affecting demand and the quantity of demand for rural logistics in Jiangxi Province will help explore the potential of rural logistics development in Jiangxi Province,and provide suggestions for the development of rural logistics,so as to achieve the purpose of improving the logistics level in rural areas of Jiangxi Province.In this paper,firstly,having reviewed research on rural logistics and the concept of rural logistics and rural logistics demand has been defined.At the same time,the methods of gray logistics system are selected for rural logistics demand analysis and forecasting in Jiangxi Province.Then,paper gives an introduction for the applicability and characteristics of the method.Secondly,this paper analyzes the economic and logistics status of the whole region and rural areas in Jiangxi Province,and provides a certain basis for grasping the overall development situation of rural logistics.Theoretical foundation and practical basis provide solid foundation for the analysis of the influencing factors of rural logistics demand in Jiangxi Province.After reading a large number of literatures related to the selection of logistics demand indicators,combining the characteristics of rural logistics,this paper chooses rural social consumer goods retail sales as a representative indicator of rural logistics demand.The demand factors are divided into three categories: scale factors,economic factors,and other factors,and the indicators under each category of influence factors are quantified.Taking the retail sales of consumer goods in rural areas as a reference sequence,a grey correlation analysis was conducted to obtain the ranking of the grey relatedness.According to the ranking,the most influential factors of rural logistics demand in Jiangxi Province were founded.Based on the current situation,corresponding analysis and explanations were made.In the forecasting of rural logistics demand in Jiangxi Province,this paper adopted the GM(1,1)model and used the above-mentioned important indicators to forecast the final logistics demand,and proposed a breakthrough point for the development of rural logistics in Jiangxi Province.Finally,based on the above forecasting and analysis results,this paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations for improving and stimulating rural logistics demand in Jiangxi Province.It hopes to have a certain guiding significance for the future development of rural logistics in Jiangxi Province.