The Research On Financial Crisis Assesment Of Listed Companies Based On Survival Analysis

Chinese securities market has been developed for more than 20 years,in order to regulate the operation of the stock market,the Securities Management Committee of China requires special treatment(ST)of enterprises with financial abnormity or operating abnormity.Therefore,it is important to establish a good financial earlywarning mechanism and make the enterprises operate with fine and sustainable.This paper takes the Chinese listed A-share enterprises as the research object to evaluate and analyses the enterprises financial risk by using Cox proportional hazard model.This paper summarizes the local and abroad literature about the financial risk,defines the sign of the financial crisis,introduces the causes of financial risk,illustrates the the theory of survival analysis.This paper chooses 1382 sample records to explain the distribution of the financial crisis enterprises,selects 38 indexes from 7 categories to build model,which includes debt paying ability,development ability,risk level,operation ability,cash flow analysis,relative value.26 indicators were obtained after filling missing values by KNN,and significance tests.Finally,70% samples were selected randomly as training set,and the rest as test set.This paper uses the training set to get the survival function diagram and the risk function diagram by the life table method,establishes the Cox regression and gets the conclusion that there are four protective factors affecting financial risk,which are current ratio,net profit growth rate,the net cash of net profit,total assets cash recovery.The survival rate function is obtained by estimating the standard survival rate.What's more,the rationality and applicability of the model are proved by the significance test and the PH hypothesis test.The accuracy of the model is tested by test set,and the accuracy of the model is 87.2%.