| From the Seven-year Poverty Reduction Program to two outlines of poverty reduction in rural poor areas,China's poverty reduction and development has experienced from satisfying the food and clothing to coordinating the development of education,medical,housing,infrastructure and environmental hygiene,which have been improving the living standard of rural residents and promoting social harmony and stability.The issued The Outline for Development-oriented Poverty Reduction for China's Rural Areas(2011-2020)has delimitated 14 continuous poverty-stricken areas,and the 18 counties of Ganzi Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture are all located in the Tibetan area of Sichuan,Qinghai,Gansu and Yunnan,which is one of the continuous poverty-stricken areas.The Ganzi Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture is located in the upper Yangtze River,which is an important ecological barrier.Meanwhile,the Ganzi Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture is an ethnic area,which made this area play an important role both in national ecological security and national harmony.According to analyzing the spatial pattern and changing trend of production-living-ecology in Ganzi Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture could provide a policy reference of the coordinated development of production-living-ecology,promoting the stable and sustainable eliminating poverty in Ganzi Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture.In this article,we learned a lot about the natural resources and socio-economic conditions in Ganzi Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture first.And then according to the existing researches about production-living-ecology,we selected the indices that could reflect the production-living-ecology conditions of study areas to construct the index system,and meanwhile determined the reference value for each index.Using entropy weighting methods to determine the weights of each index,and then using gray relational methods to calculate the production-living-ecology evaluation indices for each county from 2010 to 2016.Subsequently,based on evaluation indices from 2010 to 2016 which have been calculated above,using the Bayesian spatial-temporal model to analyze the spatial patterns of production-living-ecology conditions compared to overall conditions,the overall changes over time and the deviates from overall development trend for each county.During the construction of Bayesian spatial-temporal model,we considered the adjacent relation of each county that is the adjacent counties has stronger correlation.Finally,combing the current development of poverty reduction,poverty reduction policies and projects in Ganzi Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture to analyze the reasons and give suggestions.Through this analysis we draw the conclusions as follows:(1)From 2010 to 2016,the overall production-living-ecology condition changing over time in Ganzi Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture has shown a slow increasing trend.While the production condition had slow increasing trend and the living standard had significant increasing trend,the ecological condition had obvious decreasing trend.(2)From the 2010 to 2016,compared to overall production-living-ecology condition in Ganzi Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture,the development of production-living-ecology has shown a significant regional differences spatial pattern.The northern region was lagged behind the eastern and southern regions.While the development of living standard and production condition has shown obviously regional differences,the ecology condition has no such spatial pattern.(3)From 2010 to 2016,compared to the overall development of production-living-ecology in Ganzi Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture,some counties showed a higher development speed than overall development trend.Among them,the evaluation indices of the production-living-ecology in Dege County and Ganzi County in the northern Ganzi was at a lower level,but they have shown a faster development trend than the overall trend of Ganzi Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture,and have great potential of development. |
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