The Analysis Of Influencing Factors Of PPP Renegotiation

The rapid development of the PPP model has promoted the construction of China's infrastructure,but it is difficult to avoid renegotiation during the implementation of the PPP project.While renegotiation exerts its regulatory role,it may be used to gain interest and cause project efficiency loss.Therefore,it is necessary to effectively regulate and govern the renegotiation of PPP projects.This study not only helps to understand the internal mechanism of renegotiation and thus adopts targeted measures for governance,but also can regulate adaptive renegotiation and reduce strategic renegotiation,thus promoting the sound development of PPP projects.Based on transaction cost economics theory and institutional theory,this paper analyzes the influence factors of PPP renegotiation from the micro project level and the macro institutional environment level,and classifies the influencing factors into direct and indirect influence factors.The direct influencing factors will directly lead to the occurrence of PPP renegotiation,while indirect influence factors influence the occurrence of PPP renegotiation by affecting the possibility of direct influencing factors.At first,this paper analyzes the inherent mechanism of PPP renegotiation: the opportunistic behavior and the limited rationality of the government and the social capital,the asset specificity and the uncertainty of the PPP project will lead to the occurrence of the PPP renegotiation.On this basis,we identify nineteen direct influence factors,which are divided into three categories: moral hazard factors,contractual adaptability factors and contractual locking factors.The impact weights of direct influencing factors will be evaluated through expert questionnaires and analytic hierarchy process.Secondly,this paper analyzes the impact of external institutional environment on PPP renegotiation from the macro level of the system.We identify the indirect factors such as legal maturity,procurement methods and supervision mechanisms from the formal institutional environment,and identify indirect influence factors such as cultural environment,relationship contracts and reputation mechanisms from the informal institutional environment.Based on the theory of new institutional economics,this paper analyzes the influence mechanism of various indirect influence factors on the occurrence of PPP renegotiation.The results of this research indicates that moral risk factors have the greatest impact on the PPP re negotiation,the contract locking factor is the second,the contract adaptability factors have little influence.Among the nineteen factors,the early withdrawal of social capital and the lack of timely supply of capital land are more likely to trigger the re negotiation,and the influence of four contractual adaptability factors include social risk,economic risk,technology risk and natural force majeure are relatively small.In addition,the analysis of the indirect impact factors of PPP renegotiation shows that: the legal maturity,the comprehensive score and the qualification review system in procurement,the supervision mechanism,the relationship contract,and the reputation mechanism reduce the strategic renegotiation of the PPP project by suppressing the moral hazard of the government and the company;the negotiation systems in procurement and relationship contracts can reduce adaptive renegotiation by improving adaptive factors;the supervision mechanism and reputation mechanism can reduce the occurrence of strategic renegotiation of PPP projects by reducing contract lock-in.However,China's cultural environment will increase adaptive risk and lead to an increase in adaptive renegotiation.Finally,based on the analysis results of direct and indirect influence factors,from the micro project level of the previous design and contract design and the formal system construction and informal system construction at the macro system construction level,the PPP renegotiation governance measures are targeted.