| The global upswing in economic activity is strengthening,the global pickup in activity that started in the second half of 2016 gained further momentum in the first half of 2017,but hasn't complete yet.Growth remains weak in some countries and regions because of several factors.Investment,as one of three factors driving economic growth,has become one of the most driving factors for regional economic growth.The investment environment of the country or region is the first factor that investors consider when investing.The evaluation of regional investment environment and the diagnosis of influencing factors can not only help investors grasp their investment environment,make correct investment decisions,but also provide targeted countermeasures for the improvement of regional investment environment to attract foreign investment and stimulate economic growth.The investment environment along "the Belt and Road" areas is expected to be improved with the introduction and comprehensive and in-depth implementation of "the Belt and Road" initiative.The Gulf Area,as the joint of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road with rich oil and gas resources,has important significance in effectively propelling ?the Belt and Road? initiative.The Gulf area(Iran,Iraq,Saudi Arabia,Kuwait,United Arab Emirates,Qatar,Oman,and Bahrain)contact Asia,Europe,Africa,the Indian Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean.Since ancient times,it has been an important communication channel between the East and the West and has an important strategic position.Meanwhile,the Gulf area is the world's oil depots and their oil and gas resources rank first in the world.Eight countries' total oil proved reserves account for about 47.3% of the world,and the total natural gas proved reserves account for about 42.3% at the end of 2016.Rich oil and gas resources have stimulated the growth of the oil economy of the Gulf countries.But it has also brought the issues of the single economic structure and the economy vulnerable to the impact of international oil price fluctuations to the forefront.Apart from resources and economic environment,the relevant factors of the investment environment in the political,social,and infrastructural facilities of the Gulf countries are also different.Therefore,it's necessary for foreign investors to understand the comprehensive investment environment of the Gulf Area.This is of practical significance in helping choosing investment areas in Gulf Area against the background of ?the Belt and Road? Initiative.The use of scientific evaluation index system and quantitative analysis has become most common ways to evaluate investment environment.Based on the existing document and data,this thesis uses literature research methods,analytic hierarchy process,entropy method,cluster analysis method,obstacle degree model to study the investment environment and obstacles of the Gulf area from 2010 to 2015.First,the thesis fully analyzes the global and regional economic situation and investment situation,related factors of the investment environment of each country in the Gulf area.Second,the thesis selects thirty-seven elements from five general factors of natural,economic,political,social and infrastructural construction from 2010 to 2015 to establish the comprehensive evaluation index system,evaluates the investment environment of the Gulf Area comprehensively by AHP and entropy method,classifies the eight Gulf Area countries into preferred,secondary,and risky areas by cluster analysis based on the evaluation result.Then,make a detailed analysis of the conditions related to the investment environment in the three types of investment zones.Third,based on the comprehensive evaluation study,the thesis constructed obstacle degree model to analyze the main obstacles affecting the investment environment of the Gulf countries in order to adjust and improve the regional investment environment.Finally,based on the above,the thesis put forward some measures for improving the investment environment of the Gulf area and the related recommendations for China to cooperate with the Gulf countries under the guidance of ?the Belt and Road? initiative.Through the study,the thesis draws the following main conclusions:First,the international and regional situation and its own development needs of the Gulf countries have provided opportunities for foreign investment.Since 2017,the strengthening global upswing in economic activity and the prominent economic growth trend has led to an improvement in the international trade.Thanks to the growth of the global economy and trade,global investment has shown a momentum of recovery.The foreign capital inflow to the emerging market and developing economies are expected to increase.The reform of the international investment agreement system promoted by UNCTAD and the introduction of new investment policies aimed at investment liberalization and investment promotion by most governments are beneficial to the improvement of the global investment environment.The global investment environment is improving day by day.In recent years,the fatigued oil prices has made the Gulf area,which takes oil exports as their main economic pillar,urgently need to reduce their dependence on oil.That attracting foreign capital has become one of the main approaches to develop their economies.Meanwhile,the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq,the signing of Iran's nuclear agreement and a major victory in regional anti-terrorism in 2017 that has caused some improvement in the regional situation.The Gulf countries actively improve the investment environment,and seek their own development.All these have provided opportunities for foreign investors who wish to enter the Gulf area.Second,the overall investment environment of the Gulf area is low-level,and the differences are significant.The thesis carried out the research by establishing the comprehensive evaluation index system.The evaluation results show that the overall level of the investment environment in the eight Gulf countries is generally low-level,and the scores of comprehensive evaluations in most countries are lower than the regional average score.Due to Saudi Arabia's outstanding advantages in oil resources,economy and infrastructure,it maintained its leading position in the comprehensive evaluation scores,followed by United Arab Emirates,Iran,Qatar,Kuwait,Oman Bahrain and Iraq.There is significant difference between the Saudi Arabia and the countries with low scores.Third,the investment environment is determined by the combined effects of resources,economy,politics,law,society,and infrastructure.Economy,infrastructure and abundant natural resources have a decisive influence role in comprehensive evaluation.According to the score of the comprehensive evaluation,Saudi Arabia,the United Arab Emirates and Iran are all located in the top three regions in terms of economic factors and infrastructure.Iran and Saudi Arabia are also among the top two in terms of natural resources,and the UAE is the top in terms of political and legal environment.The countries with low comprehensive scores do not have an advantage in several important factors that affect the investment environment.Fourth,the eight Gulf countries are classified into preferred,secondary,and risky areas by cluster analysis based on the evaluation result.The results of cluster analysis shows that Saudi Arabia is preferred areas,the investment environment ranks in the forefront of the region.United Arab Emirates and Iran are secondary area,and the investment environment is slightly inferior to the preferred area,but far better than the risky areas.The risky areas include Qatar,Kuwait,Oman,Bahrain and Iraq,the scores of comprehensive evaluations remains low.Fifth,with the exception of Iran and Iraq,the economic environment,infrastructure and natural resources are the top three obstacles affecting the investment environment of most Gulf countries.The first two obstacles in Iran and Iraq are the same as those in other countries,but the third obstacle is the Political and legal environment.The major obstacles that have occurred at the indicator level during 2010-2015 are subordinate to the three major systems of economy,infrastructure,and resources.Obstacle degree model were used to measure obstacle factor of investment environment.The result shows that minerals,natural gas,air transport,road and FDI inflow appear most.This is in line with the economic environment,infrastructure,and natural resources.Political stability and the absence of violence/terrorism,fragile state index,and ease of doing business have repeatedly appeared in the major obstacles in Iran and Iraq.Sixth,the improvement of the investment environment of the Gulf area should rely on itself.The thesis proposes improvement measures based on comprehensive evaluations and the measurement of obstacle factor,1,promote the technology of resource exploration and development and utilization,strengthen the protection and utilization of resources,2,improve the domestic economic environment and strengthen foreign economic relations,3,strengthen infrastructure construction and improve the hard environment of investment environment,4,complete investment policies,laws and regulations concerning foreign investment,5,pay attention to investment in education,personnel training.Seventh,the improvement of the investment environment of the Gulf area not only rely on itself,but also seize regional development opportunities and strengthen regional or international cooperation.The thesis proposes recommendations related to investment cooperation between China and the Gulf countries based on the background of "the Belt and Road" and the unique geographical advantages of the Gulf countries,1,take ?the Belt and Road? initiative as an opportunity to promote cooperation between China and the Gulf area,2,strengthen investment cooperation in the energy industry and infrastructure industries in coordination with the Gulf Area to make progress,3,understand the regional differences of investment environment in the Gulf Area,clear investment prioritization and strengthen investment risk control,4,smooth the channel for ?the Belt and Road?,5,set up an investment service platform to strengthen information exchange,6,promote bilateral exchanges or multilateral communication because of social and cultural differences to seek common ground while reserving differences to make common progress. |
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