Study On The Effect Of China's Real Estate Limited Purchase Policy From The Perspective Of Game Theory

Since the reform and opening up,the rapid development of urbanization in our country bring the total real estate market to imbalance,including structural imbalance,housing prices and other issues,real estate has a strong industry relationship,and has invested in the consumption of the dual attributes of consumer goods,which is an important part of our national economy.the upstream industry such as building materials industry,metallurgical industry,machinery industry,downstream industries constitute the decoration industry,household appliances industry,architecture industry.the development of the real estate market will directly affect the stability of China's economic and social harmony.In 2008,China has affected by the financial crisis,the price was in the recession,but the government take series of "rescue" policy,the real estate market is gradually warming up,the volume of a large number of real estate promoted,prices also increased rapidly,especially in Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou,Shenzhen and other city,due to investment and speculative purchase ratio becomes higher,it form a certain level of real estate bubble.In April 2010,the State Council promulgated the ten new laws to curb investment demand and reduce housing prices.Subsequently,the local governments promulgated the limit purchase order to reduce housing prices and rectify the real estate market.But due to various reasons,the effect of the purchase of the policy in place is not satisfactory,which did not meet expectations.so in September 2014,the purchase of the policy from the big city has quit.From above,the limited purchase policy as a specific real estate regulation policy in China,how is the impact on the housing price in the process of its implementation? What are the strategic choices between the central government,the local government and the consumers during the implementation process? These problems for the improvement of China's real estate market regulation policy is of great practical significance.On the basis of existing research,using the game theories and econometric methods,comprehensive analysis of the impact of the purchase of the policy on thereal estate market effect.In the analysis of the implementation of the purchase of the policy introduced,exit process,the central government,local government,real estate companies and consumers to open the different interests of the main strategy choose.Considering the impact of consumer expectations on housing prices,we establish the VAR model,impulse response function and variance decomposition to analyze the impact of the restriction policy and consumer expectations on housing prices in Shenzhen.The results of this study shows: first,through the game theory analysis,local government,investment property buyers and real estate stick for their own benefit maximization principle.In the purchase of the policy implementation process they are not strictly enforce the restriction policy,or even a "conspiracy" phenomenon,in order to reduce the purchase of the policy from their own interests loss.Second,through the establishment of VAR model shows that the purchase of the policy is not effective in reducing prices,even for a long time,it will stimulate the prices to arise.