An Analysis Of The Relationship Between Credit Risk And Real Estate Price Of China Commercial Bank

The price of a country is directly or indirectly related to the life of each inhabitant.In recent years,high housing prices have received sustained attention.Banking industry have also circulated the idea that banks are“kidnapped”by the real estate industry.In this context,this article analyzes the relationship between housing prices and bank credit risk in China,and clarifies the impact mechanism between the two and the real estate industry's impact on China's banking industry.Based on the establishment of a vector autoregressive model,Using the Granger causality test,impulse response,and other methods,we compare the credit risk of state-owned banks and joint-stock banks with housing prices in order to have a clearer understanding of the relationship between credit risk and house prices of different types of commercial banks in China.Finally,it proposes how to control housing prices and bank credit risks.The specific conclusions are as follows:(1)As of 2017,China's housing prices have generally continued to rise.The total amount of commercial bank credit and the proportion of home loans have also been increasing.Although systemic financial risks have not yet broken out,the pressure on risk management is increasing.(2)The empirical results show that for state-owned banks and joint-stock banks,the average price of houses is the Granger cause of their non-performing loan ratios,and the increase in house prices can reduce the credit risk in the long run.For state-owned banks,its total credit and non-performing loan ratios are Granger causes,and the non-performing loan ratio of joint-stock banks is not the Granger cause of total credit.At the same time,both types of banks have come to the same Granger cause that total credit is the price of housing,and house prices are not the same as the Granger cause of total credit,and the increase in bank credit can lead to an increase in house prices,but the total amount of state-owned bank credit The promotion of housing prices is stronger than joint-stock banks.(3)This article finds that the short-term rise in house prices will reduce the non-performing loan rate of state-owned banks,but the impact on joint-stock banks is not obvious,and the rise in house prices in the long run will reduce the non-performing loanratios of the two types of banks.Compared with large state-owned banks,the non-performing loan ratio of joint-stock banks is less stable under the influence of price fluctuations,and it is more prone to volatility.In the long-term,the prosperity of the real estate market is less severe than that of large state-owned banks.With the gradual rise in house prices,the prosperity of the real estate market will help stabilize the credit risk of large state-owned banks.