Credit Risk Evaluation And Game Analysis Of P2P Network Loan

With the steady rise of China's economic strength,the level of science and technology is striding forward,and Internet technology is also improving.Traditional social financing means have been unable to meet people's demand for strong funds.Under such circumstances,Internet finance has emerged as a new form of financial services due to its advantages such as convenience,speed and many other advantages.It is filling the gap of funds and improving financing difficulties for the society slowly.The development of P2 P network lending is in an extremely rapid stage.It is a kind of financing platform which connects the borrowers and investors with the Internet as a support.Due to the low entry threshold of borrowers,the serious asymmetry of information between borrowers,P2 P lending platform is facing credit risk.Many net loan platform has been vigorously defend the stability of the platform to measure the credit risk system and accuracy,but there are still some overdue repayment even seriously delinquent borrowers,which made by people's economic rights are threatened;also let the net lending platform facing high debt rate,and even operation capital chain of economic risk.In this paper,the credit risk of P2 P net loan is evaluated and analyzed with the method of data mining and game theory.First of all,we use the web page information to get 63240 original data of everyone's loan platform,and get 35904 data after preprocessing.By combining the characteristics and behavior of borrowers in the historical records and whether there is a default payment,we choose 28 evaluation indicators,and establish three kinds of classification models: support vector machine,decision tree model and artificial neural network model.The prediction accuracy of the decision tree is the highest,followed by the artificial neural network and support vector machine model.Therefore,the decision tree model can be used to identify the borrowers with credit risk.To provide credit risk monitoring for the P2 P net loan platform to avoid potential financial losses to investors.At the same time,this paper combined with the game theory to analyze the causes of credit risks of P2 P platform,through the game of incomplete information to make the analysis,and draw the platform in order to reduce the credit risk mechanism design should be made: setting up reasonable incentive coefficient(punishment),loan interest rate and a tightening of score,ID,interest,income,emplength and borrowtype,provide the basis and countermeasures so as for investors facing economic risk effectively,and the P2 P net loan platform financing environment will be optimized and improved.