Research On Early-warning Of Financial Risk Of China's Peer-to-peer Lending Platform

With the innovation and development of Peer-to-Peer lending,the new business model has been constantly evolving.As an important Peer-to-Peer lending business,the gradual separation of the nature of the information intermediary has exposed many problems in recent years.If Peer-to-Peer lending platform to deal with the risk of a meager margin,unable to shoulder the responsibility,Peer-to-Peer lending platform there will be cash withdrawal difficulties,failure or even the problem of failure.So,how to effectively control financial risks and properly handle the adverse effects brought by financial risks based on the public information already available in P2 P lending platforms in our country,and how to manage the Peer-to-Peer lending platform early Layers and stakeholders are facing the thorny issues.The risk of Peer-to-Peer lending platform is mainly manifested in the operation status of the platform and the borrowing behavior of borrowers and lenders.The operation status of the platform and the borrowing behavior of borrowers and lenders are important factors that affect the risk of Peer-to-Peer lending platform.The financial risk of Peer-to-Peer lending platform is mostly caused by the unreasonable financial structure of the platform or improper activities such as investment,financing and operation.Due to the objective existence of financial risk,the platform can only take effective measures to reduce the financial risk and can not completely eliminate the financial risk.Financial risk runs through the entire development process of Peer-to-Peer lending platform,and the complicated external environment,especially the market environment,further increases the uncertainty of financial risk.Therefore,Peer-to-Peer lending platform for financial risk early warning is particularly important.This paper analyzes the main influencing factors of financial risk by using the methods of literature review,quantitative qualitative analysis and empirical research.It selects the appropriate financial risk early warning indicators,designs the financial risk early warning index system,establishes the financial risk early warning model,and empirically studies the financial risk early warning indicators in five aspects to study the early-warning of financial risk ofPeer-to-Peer lending platform in China.Through the study of the contents,indicators and methods of the early warning of financial risk,this paper constructs the financial risk early-warning of China's Peer-to-Peer lending platform and uses the factor analysis and Logistic regression analysis to establish the financial risk early warning model.It analyzes the influencing factors of financial risk of Peer-to-Peer lending platform were studied.This study finds that the financial risk of Peer-to-Peer lending platform is mainly manifested in capital adequacy risk,capital liquidity risk,asset quality risk,return rationality risk and management level risk.Among them,the management level of the most prominent risk is the primary factor affecting the financial risk of Peer-to-Peer lending platform.Based on the CAMEL rating system and commercial bank risk early warning indicator system design indicators,to some extent,it can reflect the financial risk of Peer-to-Peer lending platform and the Logistic financial risk early warning model constructed by the model has a higher overall forecasting accuracy rate and can accurately predict the financial risk.Financial risk monitoring,identification,assessment,early warning,prevention is an eternal research topic.In order to ensure the long-term operation of the financial risk early-warning of Peer-to-Peer lending platform and identify the financial risks faced by Peer-to-Peer lending plat form timely and effectively,it is necessary to improve the industry regulatory system and self-discipline system,strengthen the design of early warning index system for financial risks and establish a financial risk early warning model in line with the national conditions,a financial risk management system based on Peer-to-Peer lending platform was constructed.