Research On The Correlation Between U.S. Dollar Index And Gold Price From The Perspective Of Economic Cycle

The existence of the economic cycle has led to a regular fluctuation in the economy.The international transmission of the economic cycle is mainly through the three ways of trade,transnational investment and financial market.The transmission of the economic cycle through the financial market will have a certain impact on the asset price.Because gold is priced in dollars,while the dollar index is also recognized as the main factors that caused the changes in the price of gold,so this paper from the perspective of the economic cycle,the economic cycle is set to explore the impact of its monetary policy,and the establishment of the United States monetary policy will be what impact on the dollar index,and how the dollar the impact of changes in the gold price index.In the end,we put forward relevant policy suggestions on the foreign exchange gold reserve and gold investors in combination with the previous analysis results.According to the Jugra economic cycle will be the United States from February 1971 to February 2017 time period is divided into four economic cycles,each economic cycle will have the corresponding monetary policy,while the corresponding monetary policy will affect the dollar index,which will be elaborated on classification and theoretical analysis part of the economic cycle.Then,the relationship between the dollar index and the gold price is explored from two aspects: the long-term equilibrium relationship and the short-term "non normal" relationship.It is found that there is a significant negative correlation between the dollar index and the long-term equilibrium of the gold price.From the short term "abnormal" relationship presents the dollar index and the price of gold is positively related to changes in the same direction at the same time,weaken the impact of the dollar index on the price of gold is expected to rise,and panic in the price of gold is the main factor affecting the price changes,but the panic is caused by the price of gold is expected to rise "catalyst" however,with the global economic crisis and systemic financial risk concerns is the source of the panic.Finally,using the results of the analysis,we put forward some policies and suggestions on the official reserve management of gold foreign exchange and investment in gold in China.The deficiency of this paper is the impact of the U.S.economic cycle,the price of gold may be more than this,the impact of monetary policy,monetary policy and the impact of the dollar index,the dollar index will cause changes in the price of gold,some economic indicators to describe the changes in the economic cycle,such as the growth rate of GDP,may also directly affect the price changes.From the empirical point of view,the qualitative analysis of the theoretical part may be false,which leads to the quantitative analysis that can not fit the correlation well.