| As the international gold price break high record repeatedly, foreign exchange based on dollars continuously increases and CPI in China remain high, gold regarded as a major hedge means become a hot topic again. Reviewing the supply and demand theory as a foundation,this dissertation analyze the ten years gold price change and use many analysis means such as data, chart, table and correlation analysis. And we analyze the factors on gold price and forecast the gold price trend in the future.Product attribute and monetary attribute make factors on gold diversity and complexity. In order to find the main factors, this dissertation primaryly researches the relations between supply and demand. The gold supply is divided into three parts:mine supply, official sector sales and old gold scrap. Mine supply is the biggest proportion and the output is steady. Official sector sales is the smallest proportion and the proportion first ascended and then descended. When it reached 16.7%, it began to desecnd. The proportion of old gold scrap is between mine supply and official sector sales and changed to a larger extent. According to correlation analysis, we find gold price-official sector sales relations and gold price-old gold scrap relations are close and gold price-mine supply relations is not close. The correlation between gold price and official sector sales is negative and the correlation between gold price and old gold scrap is positive. The gold demand is divided into three parts:jewellery demand, industrial and dental demand and investment demand. Although jewellery demand is the biggest proportion, the proportion is falling. The proportion of industrial and dental demand remain about 10% and the proportion of investment demand is rising. According to correlation analysis, we find the relations between gold price and investment demand is closest and the correlation between gold price and investment demand is positive. The relations between gold price and jewellery demand is closer and the correlation between gold price and jewellery demand is negative. The relations between gold price and jewellery demand is not close. According to the research, official sector sales and investment demand is the main factors on short term gold price. In the further research, the factors on gold price are tansformed into the factors on offical sector sales and investment demand. Before the further research, the gold price trend is divided into super short-term, short-term and long-term. Whether the mine supply changes a lot is to be the symbol of short-term and long-term.According to theoretical and empirical researches, the factors on gold price include macroeconomic factors, financial factors and other factors. In the macroeconomic factors, dollar index and rate level both show the reverse change with gold price. Economic development level and inflation rate both show the same change with gold price. The loose monetary policy help raise gold price and the tight monetary policy could reduce gold price.In the financial factors, financial crisis and debt crisis can both lead to raise gold prices. In other factors, the relations between gold price and oil price are positive. The attitude of central bank can directly affect gold price. Selling gold can reduce gold price and buying gold can raise gold price. Political instability can raise gold price. When political stability return, the gold price will reduce. Combining the factors on gold price with present world political and economic stituation, we can find the factors on future gold price and forecast the future gold price.The factors on future gold price include many sides. Dollar index will continuously reduce. Europe debt crisis will last. Oil price is a uncertain factor. Newly-emerging nation inflation expectations are enhanced. Developed nations will keep low rate level in a long time. The world economic recovery is not clear. And the word political situation is not optimistic. Weak dollar, enhanced inflation, low rate level and uncertain political situation will raise gold price. The uncertain factors include oil price trend, the extent in solving Europe debt crisis and world economic recovery condition. In short term, the probability of solving Europe debt crisis and world economic recovery is small and the probability of growing oil price is high. Therefore, in short term, gold price will keep rising. According to the research results, we suggest that our country, investment organization and average investors should increase gold. For China, we should seize the gold price change trend and choose appropriate time to increase the proportion of gold in foreign exchange. For investment organization, purchasing gold in low gold price not only can resist the uncertainty of the future economic development, but also realize the diversity of the asset combination. For average investors, they should invest gold appropriately, but the percentage should not be too high. Moreover, we suggest gold producer should excavate the gold market potential, cultivate the gold industry, and meet diversified investment demand. And we give policy advices on China gold market.The possible new ideas of this dissertation include:(1) we use an indirect analysis method and change the factors of the gold price trend into factors of supply and demand of gold; (2) we firstly analyze the general factors of gold price, and then analyze the factors of future good price; (3) whether the mine supply changes a lot is to be the symbol of short-term and long-term.The deficiencies of this dissertation are as follows:(1) when we analyze some factors,we use some other factors as the argument; (2) data is not abundant enough, and we mainly adopts the last ten years data; (3) when we divide the time of the gold trends,we lack the specific division standard between short-term and super short term, in the future trend forecast, we mainly analyze the short-term trend forecast; (4) we use qualitative analysis to analyze the factors, but we do not use quantitative analysis to analyze the influence degree of every factor to the gold price. |
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