An Empirical Analysis On The Industry Effects Of China's Monetary Policy

Monetary policy has always been an important part of macroeconomic policy.Our government has always paid attention to the implementation result of monetary policy.Traditional monetary policy is to control the total quantity of credit.But in reality,monetary policy affects industrial development and structural adjustment indirectly,through the economic indicators such as interest rate,exchange rate,credit scale and asset price.Having an intensive study on industry effects can help us understand the inherent laws of the macro-economy better,and can be beneficial to enhance the pertinence and flexibility of monetary policy,and can provide references for the reform of monetary policy from quantity-based to price-based.At first,this paper combs the transmission theory of monetary policy and the theory of industry effects.On this basis,we analyze the industry effects of China's monetary policy quantitatively.We use vector auto regression(VAR)model and panel data model to analyze the structural impact of China's monetary policy on 8 industries from the first quarter of 2001 to the second quarter of 2017 in terms of four transmission variables.The research finds that:1.The empirical results prove the saliency of industry effects of China's monetary policy.2.The analysis of VAR model shows that the current channel of credit transmission in China's monetary policy plays a role through the first and second industries;The channel of interest rate transmission is mainly through two ways: total effect and structural effect;Exchange rate channel,is mainly through the first industry and the third industry.3.Panel data analysis can help us understand the industry effects of monetary policy from the perspective of industry microcosmic attributes.The analysis of panel data shows that: the scale of industry assets and financial leverage are the two main reasons for the industry effects of monetary policy.According to the above findings,this paper puts forward corresponding policy suggestions on the growth of credit scale,interest rate tools,exchange rate instruments and capital market construction.The structure of the paper is as follows: This article is divided into five chapters.The first chapter is an introduction,which describes the background,significance,innovation and literature review of the research;The second chapter is the theoretical analysis of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy and the theoretical analysis of the industry effects;The third chapter is an empirical analysis of the industry effects of China's monetary policy;The fourth chapter is an empirical analysis of the reasons for the industry effects of China's monetary policy;The fifth chapter is the conclusion and policy recommendations.