Institutional Environment?Board Stability And Management Earnings Forecasts

With the development of capital market,more and more predictive information is paid attention by users of information,and performance prediction is an important part of predictive information disclosure,Regulatory authorities such as the SFC?SZEX and SSE have also gradually taken the predictive disclosure of listed companies as an important regulatory direction.Academic research on management earnings forecasts has been advancing and the results are significant,the scholars ' in-depth research on the theory of high ladder team brings new opportunity for verifying the influence of board stability on the performance forecasts,and the revised high ladder team theory has deepened and expanded the factors that influence the decision of the company.The theory thinks that we should pay attention to the influence of the external environment and the dynamic change of directors on company decision.The most noticeable event in the annual capital market in 2016 is the competition of control rights of listed companies,and the direct manifestation of the contention of control power is the stability of the board of directors.Combined with the above background,this paper puts forward to the following questions: Will the change of board members affect the management performance forecasts? Under China's specific institutional environment,how will the change of board members affect the management performance forecasts?Through the collection,arrangement and reading of the institutional environment,the characteristics of the board of directors,and the relevant literature on management earnings forecasts,this paper found that the external institutional environment affect the performance forecast behavior of the management,and the characteristics of the board of directors also affect the performance prediction behavior of management.At the same time,this article believes that there are several aspects of the research that are worth continuing to explore:(1)Earlier studies have focused more on the independence,size,frequency of meetings,and personal characteristics of board members,shareholdings,expertise,experience and few people pay attention to the stability of the board.(2)Judging from the search results,there are few articles on the relationship between the institutional environment,the stability of the board and management earnings forecasts.Studies did not fully consider the impact of the institutional environment.In order to study the performance prediction behavior of listed companies in detail,this paper analyzes the performance prediction behavior of the managers from the perspective of voluntary performance forecast,performance prediction accuracy and timeliness.According to the theory of resource dependence,the growth and development of any organization cannot be separated from the external environment,so this paper studies the impact of external institutional environment on management earnings forecasts first.According to the agency theory,asymmetric information theory and voluntary disclosure motivation hypothesis,the change of board members can improve the supervision efficiency of the board of directors and alleviate the asymmetric information,so the paper studies the effect of the stability of board on the performance forecasts.Finally,according to the high ladder team theory,the organization decision-making process is very complicated,when studying its influencing factors,we should consider the composition of the senior management team and the environment variables.At the same time,we should consider the the factors such as strategic choice,board replacement,and composition.So this paper takes the institutional environment as the adjusting variable and studies the impact of changes in board members on the performance of the management under different institutional environment.Through empirical tests,this article found that the better the institutional environment,the more the management tends to issue performance forecasts,the higher the accuracy of performance forecasts,and the more timely the performance forecast;changes in the board of directors will strengthen the effectiveness of the supervision of the board of directors,thus prompting management to release performance forecasts and improve the accuracy and timeliness of performance forecasts;compared with areas with poor institutional environment,the better the monitoring effect of changes in the board of directors in areas where the institutional environment is good,the more the management tends to proactively announce performance forecasts.The accuracy and timeliness of performance forecasts are also higher.Finally,this article puts forward suggestions from two aspects of institutional environment and board governance,and analyzes the limitation of the article.