Research On The Influence Factors Of Management Earnings Forecasts Disclosure Strategies

With the increase in the proportion of management earnings forecasts in the stock market,investors take more attention to the disclosure quality of earnings preannouncement. Since ourcountry’s supervision department has not explicitly stipulated the disclosure time,form andaccuracy of earnings forecasts, great choice space of disclosure strategies are left tomanagement, which leads to the uneven quality of earnings forecasts. It also provides thestudy opportunity for this paper.Firstly, this paper analyses the disclosure situation of management earnings forecastsfrom the following five respects: whether disclosure, timeliness, precision, accuracy andattitude bias. Then we select the annual earnings forecasts sample during2010-2012, and wechoose influence factors from the following three aspects: securities analysts, institutionalinverstors, the financial and governance characteristics, finally, we make a empirical testbetween those influence factors and disclosure strategies. We find that tracking number ofanalysts, deviation of analysts’ forecasts, proportion of institutional ownership, earningsvolatility, company size and so on has great influence on the disclosure strategies ofmanagement earnings forecasts, but the degree of influence varies between different strategies.This paper provides significant market evidence for improving the disclosure system ofmanagement earnings forecasts.This paper’s innovations are listed as follows:(1)Prior research studied only one aspectof disclosure strategies generally, but this paper studies from five different angles, which canform a more comprehensive analysis towards disclosure situation;(2)This paper eliminatesthe new listed and delisted samples during2010-2012, hence the sample of this paper has thecharacteristic of durative;(3)This thesis chooses influence factors from the following threeaspects: securities analyst, institutional ownership, the financial and governancecharacteristics to study the disclosure strategies of management earnings forecasts, priorresearch rarely analyses earnings forecasts simultaneously from those aspects.