The Empirical Analysis Of Divergence Of CPI And PPI In Recent Years

In recent years.movement trend of the CPI and PPI have been in the opposite direction.and the divergence is getting worse.In this context.most scholars mainly focus on the difference of composition and conduction relationship between the two.But price changes are ultimately caused by mismatch between supply and demand.In view of this.this paper try to redefine the meaning of deviation firstly.The two styles that is a positive and a negative or a fast rise(fall)and a slow rise(down)are regarded as a deviation.and structure deviation index to quantify divergence.then based on Price Determination Theory of supply and demand.combining the prominent economic structural problems and using simultaneous equation model and the theory of structural breaks are used to explore the fundamental reason for the divergence of CPI and PPI from the total quantity and structure of supply and demand in different stages.This paper is divided into five parts.The first part is the introduction.including the research background.research significance.research methods.research ideas.research contents and main innovation points of the article.and finally it put forward the basic framework of the article.The second part is the literature review of the deviation of CPI and PPI.Through reading a large number of related literature at home and abroad.this paper summarizes the cause of price index deviation proposed by the predecessors and then puts forward some shortcomings and the writing thought of this paper.The third part is the theoretical analysis of the deviated cause of CPI and PPI.This chapter firstly describes the deviation status quo of CPI and PPI.and then redefines the meaning of deviation of CPI and PPI.Then.based on the theory of price decision.the mechanism of deviation of CPI and PPI was analyzed comprehensively.and finally obtain the reasons for it.The fourth part is the empirical analysis.Firstly.structural breakpoint test is used to classify different economic backgrounds.and at the same time measure it by virtual variables.Secondly.according to the mechanism of the price deviation.the factors affecting the path graph are drawn.And then it make a model to empirically analyze the reasons for the deviation of CPI and PPI.The fifth part is conclusion and suggestion.Based on the analysis of the previous chapters.the paper systematically obtained the types and reasons for deviation of CPI and PPI in different stages and put forward some specific Suggestions based on the above research.Through analysis.the main conclusions are as follows:Firstly.At different stages of departure.the cause of deviation of CPI and PPI is different.In the phase of first divergence.The divergence between CPI and PPI is mainly caused by the imbalance of supply-demand total and the uneven of internal development.Changes in industrial structure and investment structure will not lead to divergence of price index.In the phase of reverse deviation.the reasons of price index deviation is complicated.Mainly including International impact.industrial restructuring and the lagged effect of the previous price index deviation.In addition.the uneven distribution of national income and the mismatch of investment structure also aggravate the deviation.Secondly.at different stages of departure.direction and degree of the deviation by the same reason are very different.It is mainly reflected in foreign shocks.national monetary policies.relative changes in labor productivity and changes in national income distribution.In terms of foreign impact and national income distribution.they impact the deviation in the same direction of the two phase.Moreover.the deviation in the reverse deviation stage is obviously strengthened.In terms of national monetary policy and labor productivity changes.they impact the deviation in the opposite direction of the two phase.This has a lot to do with national economic structure change.