Research On The Influence Of Irrational Fluctuation Of House Prices In Chinese Cities

In recent years,house prices of our city is not only the important content of government economic regulation,which is also the hot pot of national concern.This study is based on the theory of real estate price fluctuation,rational expectation theory,Bubble economy theory and so on.By defining the irrational volatility standard and connotation of house prices and discuss its spatial and economic effects,to study of the fluctuation of urban housing prices in China in the past ten years systematically and comprehensively.And put forward effective policy suggestions for pertinence.In the part of qualitative research,by summing up and summarizing the trend and characteristics of the overall housing price and the fluctuation of the urban house prices in various levels in China,and compared with the price fluctuations in the United States and Germany,We found that 2010 was an important turning point for China's house price fluctuations.Because since then,house prices in many cities throughout the country have continued to rise,and the price fluctuation of the third-class cities is the most intense,its highest and maximum falls are far more than the First-tier cities and Second-tier cities.In addition,the difference of domestic and foreign house price fluctuation mainly comes from the unique national characteristics of the country,such as the population structure,the financial system,the government regulation and the social culture and so on.In the quantitative research part,it is mainly divided into two contents.Firstly,it is the definition of the irrational fluctuation of house prices.Specifically,it is based on the connotation of irrational fluctuations,building the evaluation system of irrational fluctuation of house price,and using the projection shadow tracing model,to get the best projection eigenvalue.And then adopt the improved 3? standard method to setting the range of irrational fluctuations.Finally,we get the city and the year that the price of the house price is irrationally fluctuated.Secondly,based on the first part of the study,Use the method of Granger causality test,analysis the spatial spillover effect of the irrational fluctuation of house prices.And we found that the fluctuation of house prices in Guangzhou has the most spatial influence,and the price fluctuation of Nanjing is the most independent.Secondary,combing the internal logic of the urban economic development is combed by the irrational fluctuation of house prices,and the panel model is used to make an empirical analysis.The main conclusions conclusion shows that:First,in 2008 and 2014,the housing prices of many cities in China are in a state of irrational volatility.Second,the irrational fluctuation of housing price has a sustained negative effect on the development of urban economy,and mainly affects the growth of GDP by affecting population growth and real estate investment growth.