Research On The Influence Of Income Structure Change Of Listed Commercial Banks On Business Risk In China

With the decrease of macroeconomic growth rate and marketization of interest rate,the net interest income growth rate of listed commercial banks in China decreased,and then negative growth had been appeared in 2016.In order to alleviate the net interest income growth slowed or even negative growth dilemma,the rapid development of non interest income business of commercial banks,through diversification,broaden sources of income,stable bank income,so as to improve the competitiveness of commercial banks.With the development of non interest business,bank income structure changes gradually,the income structure from single to multiple.Because each non-interest income has different characteristics,faces different risks,and interacts with each other,the influence of the change of income structure on the management risk of banks becomes more and more complex.In this paper,the change of income structure,the change of non-interest income and the change of non-interest income structure have been made step by step from two aspects:theoretical and empirical.This paper analyzes the influence of the change of income structure on the operating risk of listed commercial banks in China,in order to optimize the income structure of commercial banks in China,disperse the operating risks and realize the sustainable development.There are eight chapters in this paper,which are divided into five parts.The first part introduces the research background and significance of this paper,systematically combs the related theories and literature about the influence of income structure change on bank management risk.This paper defines some important concepts,such as the structure of non-interest income and the risk of bank operation,expounds the theoretical basis of the diversification of income structure,and analyzes the relationship between the diversification of income structure and the risk of bank based on the theory of portfolio of assets.Finally,the relationship between the diversification of income structure and the risk of bank is analyzed.This paper analyzes the background of income structure change,the present situation of income structure and its development trend.In the second part,the paper selects 16 listed commercial banks'income data from2008 to 2016,based on portfolio theory,through volatility decomposition and correlation analysis,investigates the reasons of bank income volatility and net interest income.The correlation between the net income of commission and commission and other non-interest income,so as to test empirically whether the diversification of income structure has the function of dispersing the risk of operation.The result shows that the net income is relative to the net income of interest.The volatility of non-interest net income is higher,but the impact on bank operating risk is less.2)other non-interest net income is more volatile.The main fluctuating source of non-interest net income.)there is a positive correlation between net fee and commission income and net interest income,which can not disperse the operating risk of banks,other non-interest net income is negatively correlated with net interest income,and there is a decentralized risk effect.In addition,other non-interest net income is negatively correlated with commission and commission net income,that is,non-interest income structure can spread risk.In the third part,based on the non-equilibrium panel data of 16 major public commercial banks in China from 2007 to 2016,using the Herfindahl Index（HI）and the Entropy Index（EI）measured the diversification degree of the income structure and the non-interest income structure of the listed commercial banks in two aspects:concentration and average degree.The diversification risk models of income structure diversification,non-interest income structure diversification and bankruptcy risk Z are established respectively.Then study the influence of the change of income structure and Non-interest income structure of listed Commercial Banks on Bank risk.The empirical results show that the higher the diversification of income structure,the lower the operating risk of the bank,and the higher the non-interest income,the more the bank risk.The higher the diversification degree of non-interest income structure,the lower the risk of bank operation.To optimize the income structure,we should increase the diversification degree of non-interest income structure,and then increase the diversification degree of bank income,so as to disperse the bank risk.Then the robustness of the main research results of this paper is tested by replacing the Z value of bankruptcy risk with R_ROA indexThe fourth part is based on the empirical model of the influence of the change of the income structure and the non-interest income structure of the commercial banks on the operation risk of the banks,and inclusion of income structure（non-interest income structure）diversification and interaction with each income,to build an interaction item optimization model.This interaction model studies the different effects of each non-interest income on the operational risk of the bank,and obtains the risk inflection point of the non-interest income and each non-interest income by finding the partial derivative of the diversified variables of the income structure（non-interest income structure）.In order to optimize the income structure,reduce the risk of bank management.The results show that the reasonable range of the non-interest net income ratio is less than 57.372.The net income of fair value change reduces the bank risk,but the relationship between commission net income and bank risk is not significant.Net investment earnings and exchange gains and other business returns are the main source of risk.The reasonable range of non-interest net income is as follows:net income of handling fees and commissions greater than 1.48%is less than 57.37%,net income of change in fair value is more than 3.72%less than 7.37%,and investment income is less than 11%>zero,Exchange income greater than zero less than 6.63,other business net income greater than zero less than 1.52percent.In the fifth part,The main conclusions of this paper are summarized,and the relevant policy recommendations are put forward.（1）Non-interest income should not be confused,but the characteristics of each non-interest income should be analyzed concretely.And strengthening the optimal management of the non-interest income structure.（2）given that the majority of non-interest income is off-balance sheet business,it is difficult to regulate.It is suggested that the financial regulatory structure adopt the risk inflection point of each income as a regulatory indicator.Combined with the impact of income on bank operating risk,strengthen the supervision of bank management risk.