An Empirical Study On The Credit Risk Of International Trade Finance From The Perspective Of Banks

As the world trade activities are increasingly frequent and accelerating the process of reform and opening up,Chinese enterprises by "introduction" become "going out",at the same time,the One Belt and One Road has become the main goal of our country's development.Correspondingly,the demand for international trade finance is getting bigger and bigger.This shows,on the one hand,the single amount of international trade financing is higher and higher,and on the other hand the demand for trade financing is getting higher and higher.With the promotion of trade globalization,the innovation of financial products of Banks is becoming normalized,but the associated trade financing risks are also increasing.According to the China banking regulatory commission,the non-performing loan ratio of commercial Banks in China has shown a trend of geometric growth over the past three years,which is 1.25%,1.67% and 1.74% respectively.The corresponding credit risk shows an expanding trend.And the credit risk associated with trade finance is high.Therefore,in such a severe environment,analyzing and studying the credit risk in international trade finance have deep realistic meaning and practical value in China's current situation.In this paper,the relevant international trade finance theory is firstly sorted and summarized,and the current development status and the cause of credit risk are introduced in detail.Then selected indicators from the four aspects of enterprise profitability,operating capacity,solvency and growth capacity,research on listed trade based sample of 53 enterprises,with ST companies and non ST companies as the size of the credit risk assessment standards,ST enterprises as 1,non ST enterprises as 0,then through the analysis of the T test,we selected 13 indicators which are significant difference,and on this basis,using principal component analysis to filter out the 5 principal component variables,established Logistic regression model and apply this model forecast another 25 companies,compare the results with the actual situation.Finally,combining the results of theoretical analysis and empirical research,The paper gives the necessary policy recommendations for the commercial banks to prevent the credit risk of international trade finance.