Study On Credit Risk Evaluation Of International Trade Financing Among China’s Commercial Banks

The international trade financing in China has originated rather late. With the rapid development of international trade and constant reform of the financial system, trade financing has become a lifeline of international trade. The proportion of international trade financing in China’s commercial banks is larger and larger with the growth of international settlements, and the financial products are tending to be integrated and individualized. However, as trade financing is gaining momentum, its credit risk has been intensified. Revealed by relevant data, the non-performing loan ratio in China’s commercial banks has been increased quarterly in the past two years, and it noted that financing is one of the business segments in commercial banks which exposed most to risk. Therefore, in order to develop international trade financing soundly, our commercial banks should build a set of complete and effective risk evaluation system according to the features and risk performances of trade financing service.This paper firstly introduced some relevant theory of international trade financing, causes of credit risk and credit risk assessment, and introduced the developing situation of China’s international trade financing and studied the causes and influencing factors of its credit risk. According to previous analysis, this paper selected indexes from the operation capacity, earning capacity, debt paying capacity and development capacity of companies and built a credit risk evaluation index system for this specific business. Based on the evaluation system, I collected 100 listed trading companies’ correlative data as samples, after the T check analysis, we got 13 indexes which of significant difference between companies in default and non-default companies. We selected 5 key factors by using principal component analysis and built a logistic regression model, by doing this we got three effective component factors: earning and development factor; operation capacity factor and debt paying factor. Besides these work, we selected 30 listed companies’ data as test samples to verify the effectiveness of the model, the result has shown that this model has a good predictability. Finally, we combined the results of theory analysis with the results of empirical analysis, and made some suggestions for China’s commercial banks in preventing and managing credit risk in international trade financing from the perspective of internal credit risk and external credit risk.