The Study On The Impact Of Financial Cycle And Financial Fluctuation On China's Economic Growth

Due to differences in regional geographical locations,resource endowments,and other factors,China's provincial economic development is different.The level of economic development in the eastern region is significantly higher than that in the central and western regions,and the absolute difference in economic development is expanding,and financial influence on the economy is increasing among factors that affect regional economic development.Experiences of various financial crises show that finance In itself,it is an important factor that aggravates economic fluctuations.It profoundly affects the degree of economic depression and its durability.With the deepening of China's financial liberalization and the improvement of economic status,grasping the characteristics of financial fluctuations at different stages of the financial cycle can help the government better formulate effective fiscal and monetary policies to regulate and control the macro economy so as to prevent financial risks and weaken the influences of financial crisis.Therefore,it is of in-depth research how financial factors at the present stage affect China's provincial economic growth,especially based on the study of the financial cycle and financial fluctuations and the clear understanding of the joint effects of economic changes between the two.Based on the research at home and abroad,this paper combines the spatial lag model to study the temporal and spatial impact of financial cycles and financial fluctuations on China's economic growth.The empirical results show:From the national panel data,(1)China's financial cycle and economic growth change in the same direction.When the financial cycle is expanding,the economic growth rate will increase significantly;when the financial cycle is in the contraction phase,the economic growth rate The performance is slowing down.(2)The increase in financial fluctuations will have a negative impact on economic growth,and the economic growth rate will decline.(3)There is a significant positive spatial spillover effect between provinces.Considering the model of economic weight matrix is more obvious,for each additional percentage point of economic growth in neighboring provinces,the economy of the region will increase by 0.9%.From the four regions of East,Central,West,and Northeast,the financial cycle and financial fluctuations of the core explanatory variables are also very significant.Among them,the value of the financial cycle has the largest impact on the Northeast region,and the financial fluctuation coefficient values are ranked from the largest to the smallest.In the Northeast,West,East,and Central China,from the perspective of control variables,the population growth rate in the central and western regions and the level of urbanization in the Northeast are significantly negative,which may be related to the “false” urbanization phenomenon;There is a negative spatial spillover effect,and the economic growth rate in neighboring regions has a weak impediment to the local economic development level.Therefore,when dealing with financial risks and preventing financial shocks,we must adjust measures to local conditions,follow objective laws,and pay attention to the following aspects:(1)Focusing on financial factor s and focusing on the factors that affect economic development Risk prevention and control;(2)Adopt differentiated economic development strategies for different provinces according to local conditions;(3)Strengthen the ability of financial services to serve the real economy,increase capital utilization rate,and promote the transformation of economic development model;(4)Strengthen economic and financial cooperation between provinces Contact.