| Urbanization is a major strategy for modernization.In recent years,the process of urbanization has been rapidly advancing in China,the land use and landscape pattern have been increasingly intensified.In the process of urbanization,Construction land invades non-construction land and squeezes ecological space.While obtaining the urbanization dividend,a series of environmental problems have emerged,it will certainly be unsustainable to serve the socio-economic development at the expense of ecological security.Chongqing has an important strategic position and geographical advantage,Ecological and economic status are irreplaceable.In recent years,the urbanization process in Chongqing continues to develop rapidly,and the level of urbanization is higher than the national average,however,under the background of the rapid development of social economy,the dramatic increase in the population size,industrial agglomeration and the increasingly prominent ecological and environmental issues,the land use and landscape pattern change significantly,and the ecological benefits and economic benefits generated by different landscape patterns vary greatly.This study uses Chongqing as a research area under the support of data such as land use,weather,landforms,transportation,population,industry,and statistical data.Chongqing as a research area in this study.Under the support of data such as land use,climate,landforms,transportation,population,industry and statistical data,take the ecological safety pattern theory,landscape ecology,economics,ecological economics,and geography as the theoretical foundations.Make full use of advantages of fuzzy multi-objective linear programming model(FMOLP)to solve multi-objective functions and the multi-constrained optimal solutions,integrates the Multi-criteria Evaluation Model(MCE)advantages of science and convenience to evaluate Landscape Suitability for Various Land Uses,build a FMOLP-MCE-CA model based on the theoreticalmethods and visualization advantages of cellular automata(CA),using Matlab Programming to realize the prediction and optimization of land use and Landscape Pattern in Chongqing.the process of forecasting and optimization.the difference between ecological value and economic value will produce different landscape patterns,this study provides a comprehensive analysis of changes in landscape patterns under different ecological and economic needs at different times in the future,based on the requirement,the changes of landscape pattern in the process of urbanization are divided into four scenarios: unconstrained situation,optimal situation of ecological benefits,optimal situation of economic benefits,and optimal ecological-economic benefits,In terms of time,using 2015 as the base year to predict and optimize landscape in Chongqing in 2025,2035 and 2045.The FMOLP-MCE-CA model prediction and optimization process mainly consists of the following four steps.Firstly,on the basis of spatial autocorrelation analysis,spatial lag model(SLM)and spatial error model(SEM)are used to analyze the relationship between land use and landscape pattern change and natural,social,and economic factors,and determine the influencing factors of land use landscape pattern change.Secondly,FMOLP and GM(1,1)models were used to predict and optimize the landscape area of different types under different scenarios.Then,using the MCE model to evaluate the suitability of various types of landscape space,assess the appropriate degree of landscape transformation of each type.Finally,the constructed FMOLP-MCE-CA model was used to predict and optimize the landscape pattern of land use in Chongqing under different scenarios.The main research contents and conclusions are as follows:(1)Analysis of the factors affecting the change of landscape patternThere are differences in the influencing factors of the transformation of different types of landscape patterns of land use.The factors affecting the spatial layout of cultivated land include rainfall,ndvi,slope,degree of undulation,dem,temperature,population,output value of the secondary and tertiary industries,distance from the administrative center of the district,distance from the national road,distance from the provincial road,distance from the highway,and rivers and lakes distance.The natural factors affecting the spatial layout of forest land are the same as those of arable land,but in terms of socio-economic factors,the influence of national and district administrative centers is negligible.The factors affecting the spatial layout of grassland include rainfall,ndvi,slope,degree of undulation,dem,temperature,population,distance from the administrative center of the district,distance from the national road,distance from theprovincial road,distance from main urban road and rivers and lakes distance.The factors affecting the spatial layout of construction land include ndvi,slope,degree of undulation,dem,temperature,population,output value of secondary and tertiary industries,distance from administrative centers of districts and counties,distance from national roads,distance from provincial roads,distance from high speed,distance from rivers and lakes.(2)Prediction and optimization of landscape area of different types under different scenariosDifferent situations have different emphasis on the optimization and prediction of the landscape area of various types of land use.The best eco-efficiency situation focuses on the maximization of ecological value.The size of landscape eco-efficiency for each type of land type will determine the level of the final optimized forecast result.The forest land with the highest ecological value has the largest area under this scenario,and the construction land with the lowest ecological value has the smallest area.The economic optimal situation focuses on economic development,construction land is used as the main carrier of economic development,compared with other situations,the construction land area is the largest in this situation.The ecological-economical optimal situation considers both ecological protection and economic development,it seeks an optimal solution between the optimal ecological efficiency and the optimal economic efficiency,maximize ecological and economic benefits.the landscape area of various types is between the best ecological efficiency and the best economic efficiency In this situation.In the unconstrained situation,the continuous decrease of cultivated land,the increase in the area of construction land,and the small increase in forest land and grassland,even with a decreasing trend.(3)Suitability evaluation of different landscape space of land useThere are strong regional differences in the adaptability of different land use.The high value area of cultivated land is located in the north of the Yangtze River in Liang Ping and Zhongxian,and the suitability of cultivated land in Northeast Chongqing and Southeast Chongqing is low.The spatial distribution of forestland and grassland suitable high value areas has a common domain.Generally,the forestland suitability is higher than that of grassland,and the suitable landscaping of forestland and grassland in the higher elevation regions such as Chengkou,Wuxi,Wushan,Fengjie and Yunyang in Northeast Chongqing.followed by southeast Chongqing,has the least suitability in the western region.The suitability of construction land is greatly influenced by theadministrative centers of all districts and counties,and the degree of suitability is gradually reduced from the built-up areas of each district and county,the suitability of western Chongqing and the nine key districts is high,and the suitability of southeast Chongqing and northeastern Chongqing is low.(4)Analysis of prediction and optimization results of FMOLP-MCE-CA model under different situations and different periodsUnder the four different scenarios,the area of cultivated land has been reduced to varying degrees,the increase of landscape area of other land types has mostly come from the conversion of cultivated land,there are differences in the size of the same type of land under different scenarios.Under the optimal situation of ecological benefits,the cultivated land is mainly converted to forest lands and grasslands with high ecological value,and the area converted into construction land is less than other situations.Under the optimal situation of economic benefits,the reduced cultivated land is converted into construction land,which is converted into less area of woodland and grassland.In the optimal ecological-economic situation,the amount of cultivated land converted into construction land,forest land,and grassland is between the optimal eco-efficiency and economic efficiency situation.In the unconstrained environment,the increase in forestland and grassland area is low and the fluctuation is small,the reduced cultivated land mainly transformed into construction land,this scenario is harmful to ecological security and it is uncoordinated and unsustainable.In terms of space distribution for new land,the new construction land expands according to different increments with the boundary of the built-up area as the starting position,The newly added locations of forest land and cultivated land are mainly located in the areas with high altitude,large slope,low temperature,high topography,sparse population,low road network density,and relatively slow economic development. |
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