Investment Risk Of Leiyang City Residential Project Development

Commodity housing market in China has experienced a brief decline in 2008 and retaliatory rise in 2009 since the financial crisis of 2007, due to the functional features of commodity residential house, soaring house prices has seriously affected the national quality of life, it makes an economic problem gradually into the people’s livelihood issues in our country. After this, commodity housing market of our country has been under the strict control of the government since 2010, it had a great effect on the whole industry, especially for commodity housing market of small and medium-sized city impact is bigger. In 2014, although the central government proposed a new train of thought of the bidirectional regulation, house purchase restrictions will continue to be imposed in the first-tier cities and some key second-tier cities, meanwhile, it will be cancelled in the vast majority of small and medium-sized cities, but accumulated inventories under the strong regulation policy over the years still make many real estate development enterprises of small and medium-sized city face enormous difficulties. However, in 2014, the reform of the household registration system and to keep pushing ahead in depth of urbanization also has brought a lot of opportunities for commodity housing market of small and medium-sized city. At this time, all of the real estate enterprise of the small and medium-sized city need to consider the problem, whether they can adopt scientific and reasonable method to conduct the risk assessment of investment in the development of the commodity residential house project, so that to seize the opportunities in the future, to avoid risks for the companies to provide strong guarantee.In this paper, on the basis of related theory reference literature, the author analyzes the commodity housing development investment environment in Leiyang from all parties, then identify and analysis of the key risk factors for commodity housing projects, and build the Leiyang commodity residential projects investment risk evaluation model based on the monte carlo simulation method. At the last, by using monte carlo simulation, the author evaluate the investment risk of Leiyang Wanyuan international city.