A Study On The Dynamic Relationship Between Bank Credit And Real Estate Price In China

With the continuous improvement of China's market economy,China's financial markets and the real estate market are showing a booming landscape,especially in recent years,real estate has gradually become the consumption of our residents just need to stimulate economic growth and create an important growth point of GDP Pillars.However,due to the higher real estate prices,real estate prices continue to rise,which will bring a heavy burden on residents'lives.At the same time,fluctuations in real estate prices will cause economic fluctuations.Therefore,real estate prices and our lives are closely related to our more concerned about the issue.This article will explore the real estate prices affected by what factors,real estate prices and financial industries and bank credit closely,to understand whether the price of real estate is related to credit,we want to know what the real estate prices are affected,why real estate prices will continue increase.This article examines the real estate price decisions and trends from the perspective of bank credit.China's bank credit and real estate prices dynamic relationship was studied using qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis of a combination of data unit root test,cointegration test,vector error correction,and Granger causality test and a series of means,Found in the long run,the real estate prices and the bank's financial credit business and no special stability.There is a long-term cointegration relationship between bank credit and real estate prices,and there is an inter-related causal relationship between long-term equilibrium level and the long-run equilibrium of credit variables in the short run.The adjusted regression equation of the error correction model shows that short-term bank credit fluctuations will not have a significant impact on real estate prices.And through the comprehensive analysis of the cointegration model and Granger causality analysis,we finally get the cointegration model of the changes of financial credit and real estate prices in the long run,and find that in the long run there is a positive correlation between the financial credit and real estate prices relationship.However,in the short term,bank credit directly affects the real estate prices in our country,and the impact on real estate prices dominates.There are many changes in credit.In many cases,it is still policy-oriented rather than market-driven.Therefore,the variables that affect credit are uncertain.Then we analyze the policies and regulations,interim control,economic trends,interest rates,etc.After the variable,we found that the real bank credit growth rate significantly affects the change of the real house price growth rate,that is,the bank credit significantly affects the real estate price.On this basis,this paper makes use of the historical data of the actual real estate prices in our country,analyzes the changing trend of the real estate prices by using two decomposition methods commonly used by the HP filter method and the BP filter method.The two methods focus on the long-term trend elements Decomposition and decormposition of the elements of the cycle trend,found that over time,in recent years,the growth rate of real estate sales prices gradually become larger.The research results of this paper are consistent with the existing research results.The research methods used are feasible.The research conclusion further reveals that the real estate prices are closely related to bank credit,and the macro-control over China in the financial market and real estate market Has a greater reference value.