Analysis On Persistence Effect Of Real Estate Market Risk And Its Dynamic Change

As a link between capital market and real economy,the real estate market has long been the focus of attention by researchers.The fluctuation of the real estate market not only affects the economic development of the country at the macro level,but also affects the economic interests of the investors and the housing just in the micro level.In the study of the real estate market,risk is the most critical factor,which is also the most concern of regulators and market participants.As a developing country,the main kinetic energy driven by the economy comes from the real estate industry.It is the necessary condition for the healthy development of the economy to maintain the smooth operation of the real estate market.There are many perspectives on the risk of real estate market.Most of them focus on the risk of risk and qualitative analysis.At present,there are few studies on the sustainable effect of the real estate market.Therefore,it is necessary to focus on the study of the risk sustained effect.There are many models to depict the capital market,in which the fractal market theory is better to simulate the real situation,and the fractal market theory can describe the long memory of the time series.Therefore,the fractal market theory is of theoretical and practical basis to analyze the risk persistence effect of the real estate market.The study of the sustained effect of the risk of the real estate market will help to understand the different characteristics of the market risk,and help to track,warn and prevent the systemic risk of the real estate market,enrich the achievements of the theoretical circle in this field,and provide a reference for the prudent supervision of the macro view of the real estate market risk in our country.First of all,this article from the real estate market risk,fractal market theory and the study of the real estate market index selection three angles of the literature of the existing researchers have been combed and commented.By combing the research field of the existing real estate market risk,the research direction of the risk sustained effect of the real estate market is established,the development history of the fractal theory and the related work about the application of fractal theory to market research are introduced.The representative character of the index selection is very important because of the study of the real estate market.The price index of 70 big cities,new real estate and second-hand housing is used as the proxy variable of the market price trend.The literature review provides theoretical basis and practical significance for subsequent analysis and empirical research.Secondly,before the further empirical analysis,this paper makes a detailed introduction to the related theories of the real estate market,and makes a reasonable analysis of the current real estate market and the risk of the real estate market in China,which is of great significance to explain and analyze the conclusion associated with the reality after the model.The fractal theory and the related content of fractal market are further introduced.The calculation method of Hearst index and its specific significance are introduced in detail.The R/S,Lo,ARFIMA model containing long short range correlation and whittle algorithm based on maximum likelihood parameter estimation are set up,and the model preparation is done for the later analysis.Thirdly,this paper first combines the trend of the new housing and second-hand housing prices in 70 large and medium cities in China,and then uses the R/S analysis and Lo analysis to measure the Hearst index of the risk sustained effect.It is concluded that the long memory of the real estate market in China is also the existence of risk sustained effect.As R/S analysis and Lo analysis are sensitive to the long and short range,the long and short correlation effects are introduced into the ARFIMA model,and the conclusion is further confirmed that the real estate market in China has a strong risk sustained effect.Thirdly,based on the ARFIMA model,combined with the mobile time window technology,we analyze the time varying characteristics of the risk persistence effect in China's real estate market.The main conclusions are as follows:1.There is a strong risk sustained effect in the real estate market in China,and the risk sustained effect of the new housing market is relatively strong relative to the second-hand housing market.Two,the overall performance of the real estate market is relatively stable,only a significant fluctuation in the left right in 2014,which coincides with the risk of too large real estate stock at that time.Three,the risk of the real estate market has been accumulated,and we need to be alert to risks.Finally,according to the time-varying characteristics of the real estate market risk,and the correlation between the two market trends of new housing and second-hand housing,this paper gives the relevant policy suggestions from the three angles of the government,the enterprise and the individual.