The Study Of The Influence Factors Of Manufacturing Industry In Sichuan Province Based On The VAR Model

The manufacturing industry is the main industry for the survival and development of human society,and its development level represents the level of economic development of a country or region.In recent years,the rapid development of manufacturing industry in Sichuan province has gradually become an industrial province.But on the whole,Sichuan manufacturing industry is mainly labor-intensive industries,high energy consumption,heavy pollution,low added value,compared with the developed coastal provinces and cities manufacturing industry there is still a gap.It is necessary to analyze the shortage and restricting factors in the process of upgrading the manufacturing industry in Sichuan Province,and to promote the upgrading of the manufacturing industry in Sichuan province.In this paper,the study of the previous scholars to sum up and sort out,using empirical and theoretical,qualitative and quantitative combination of methods,based on the existing theory of international division of labor,the global value chain theory,we select the 1998-2015 time series data of Sichuan province manufacturing industry first,ahead of upgrade and upgrade of the rate coefficient of Sichuan province manufacturing the direction of industry estimates the value of the use of Moore and industrial structure,and then constructed from vector regression(VAR)model,Granger causality test,impulse response function and variance decomposition of the empirical analysis of technological innovation,system innovation,producer services,enterprise scale and advanced manufacturing industry human capital effect of industrial upgrading in Sichuan province.The conclusions are as follows:(1)according to the calculation results of Moore,it shows that in recent years,the adjustment of industrial structure in Sichuan province is not large,and the upgrade rate is small.According to the coefficient values in advance of industrial structure,the manufacturing industry in Sichuan province is in the leading development trend,especially in the technology intensive manufacturing,such as computer and other electronic communications equipment manufacturing industry.The development process of manufacturing industry in Sichuan is slowing down,which is consistent with the current development situation,and it is urgent to seek a breakthrough.(2)according to the vector regression(VAR)model,Granger causality test,impulse response function and variance decomposition of the empirical results show that the technology innovation of manufacturing industry in Sichuan province at the beginning of the period of industrial upgrading effect,with the passage of time,for the manufacturing industry to upgrade the contribution will gradually weaken the effect and system innovation;the relative contribution is significant,and in a certain period of time after all can play a role;senior human capital investment of Sichuan province manufacturing industry upgrading effect is not very significant,although the first impact,but after the effect gradually weakened;but the production services industry appears as a negative contribution,then gradually to the 0 convergence,this negative effect is weakened,and then change to the positive trend.According to the above theoretical and empirical analysis,combined with the actual situation of the development of manufacturing industry in Sichuan Province,from enhance technological innovation and application ability,improve the institutional environment,accelerate the accumulation of human capital and the optimization of production service industry in these areas to the manufacturing industry in Sichuan province and upgrading countermeasures.