Prediction Of Grain Yield In Anhui Province Based On Multiple Regression Analysismethod Study

With the reform of the rural system,the accelerated development of the agricultural economy,the international development of agricultural development,food security issues become more important.A country's food problem is related to the national economy and the people's livelihood,for the larger population base and is in the development stage of China,the food problem is particularly prominent.Under this problem,based on the prediction of grain yield scientifically and accurately,is an important work in food production and agricultural development,to predict the grain yield accurate is conducive to national other areas including research and development of national GDP and economic industrial structure,beneficial to the stability of economic development and people's living standard to improve.In view of Anhui province is a major agricultural province of the main position,this paper takes Anhui Province as the study area,the total grain yield of Anhui Province,the multiple regression analysis and forecasting,have a certain understanding of future food production,provide strong support for the relevant departments.Under this background,this paper carried out the research on the prediction method of grain production in Anhui Province,the main research results are as follows: using the time series analysis of multivariate time series method for model identification method based on data processing and analysis,multiple regression can be used multiple factors analysis to forecast grain production in Anhui Province,which displayed due to the analysis of factors related to the data processing and,due to the existence of multiple linear relationship between variables and independent variables,so the grain yield of Anhui province to establish a multiple linear regression model to forecast.This paper studies the following aspects:(1)using the optimal fitting multiple regression model to predict the grain yield of Anhui province.The timing characteristics of grain yield prediction method has limitations,need to join the influence factors and consider the relationship between the timing and extent of this paper is the application of grain production in Anhui Province as the observation value as the dependent variable,the factors as independent variables into consideration,analysis of the dependent variable and each independent variable,and the relationship between variables.And the analysis of the existing properties,the optimal model selection method using tools,analyze the optimal fitting multiple regression model to find more suitable for food production.(2)establish the ARIMA model of multivariate time series analysis and the multivariate linear regression model of multivariate time series analysis to predict the grain yield of Anhui province.Multiple linear regression models were established ARIMA model analysis and multivariate time series analysis of a timing element,from the longitudinal analysis and horizontal analysis to compare the actual effect of two kinds of models,through the process of modeling,data processing and application,the actual value and the relative error between the predicted value,through a comparative study of these aspects multiple regression analysis found that more suitable for the prediction of grain yield in Anhui Province,which can be generalized to other industries,while the use of this model to predict the grain output in the next few years.