| That the production capacity is greater than the demand is a common and frequent normal economic phenomenon,and the special performance of the relationship between supply and demand in the cyclical economic fluctuations.However,if the production capacity exceeds the effective demand to some extent,the excess capacity emerges,it will bring many negative effects to the social and economic life.In recent years,the problem of excess capacity is becoming increasingly serious,the capacity controdiction is more and more prominent,which affected the healthy development of industries and enterprises seriously in our country,especially in the new normal and pushing the supply side of the reform background,the urgent need for experts and students to study overcapacity and its formation mechanism in-depth,to make the status of excess capacity and influencing factors clearly,and put forward the corresponding governance recommendations.In this paper,we can probe the excess capacity from the perspective of the supply side by consulting and putting file in order a large number of related literature at home and abroad so that we can evaluate the China's manufacturing industrial overcapacity situation more objective and comprehensive,and cost function method is used to measure the manufacturing capacity utilisation of 28 industries in our country,and analyzes the results according to the evaluation criteria of overcapacity.The results show that: the eight industries are long-term overcapacity industry,the six long-term industry capacity is insufficient;surplus industry sales rate and capacity utilization trend is roughly the same;most industry capacity utilization changes and economic cycle fluctuations show consistency;Side policy to control the excess capacity to achieve a weak effect.In this paper,the generalized difference moment estimation method is used to study the influence of the explanatory variables on the excess capacity.The study show that: the early stage of the accumulation of excess production capacity has a significant influence on the current overcapacity situation,the situation of the surplus will present “inertia” feature and exist a significant path dependence of inertia;Theconfiguration rationality of labor and resources have an influence on excess production capacity significantly,and dissolve excess capacity by pull function;Government regulation effect is not significant,the influence of the factors of market monopoly is the formation of overcapacity role;The estimation results of element's coefficient of technology innovation show that the technical elements of investment is one of the important power of excess production capacity to dissolve;The return of the growth rate of the prime operating revenue is significantly positive result,it illustrates that the potential advance of production efficiency has stimulated demand vigorously so that the industry can effectively improve the capacity efficiency;Capacity utilization show the same direction of the law of change on macroeconomic fluctuations,GDP growth has a positive effect on capacity utilization.Eventually,this article draws a conclusion that,overcapacity is rooted in the supply side,rather than the demand side which embarks from the supply side and from the perspective of policy simulation and decision support by combining of research.Therefore,we put forward the corresponding policy recommendations aiming at how to alleviate the problem of excess production capacity in order to reasonable use of supply side to promote the structural reform relieve excess capacity and provide the reference to realize the coordinated and healthy development of China. |
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