The Research Of Quantitative Estimation Of Excess Capacity And Its Correlation With The Macroeconomic

Currently, excess capacity has become an outstanding problem in China's economic operation and has caused widespread concern, because excess capacity will have serious side effect on economic operation, and exert negative impact on the economic structure in the short and long run. It will undermine the healthy development of industrial economy, increase the risk of aggregate economic fluctuation, and cause recession after the boom. The change of Economic growth pattern has been impeded by the excess capacity; finally will reduce the quality and efficiency of economic growth. Government has adopted a series of measures to control excess capacity, but the problems have not been effectively resolved.Excess capacity occurred in the heavy chemical industry, such as iron and steel industry and cement industry. China's economic system transition is in the special stage of rapid progress of market economy, industrial structure is tending to high-class, consumption structure is upgrading, and the proportion of heavy industry is increasing. As an emerging market economy, investment has been the major driving force in the development of China's economy, and this phenomenon will last a long time in the future. The causes of excess capacity are complex and diverse, over-investment, the imbalance between investment and consumption, asymmetric information are the main views. So studying the formation mechanism of excess capacity has important practical and theoretical significance to the development of China's economy in the future.In this article, on the base of summarizing a variety of methods of the measurements of the capacity utilization, employing the frontier production function and deriving a new formula to measure the capacity utilization, and calculated capacity utilization of China's overall economic from 1991-2009.The results showed that China's capacity utilization has been on a declined path. Being based on the theoretical analysis, using the calculated industrial capacity utilization of 28 regions from 2000 to 2009, employed fixed effect dynamic panel data model with variable intercepts, analyzing the interaction among macroeconomic fluctuation and the level of investment and capacity utilization. The results show that macroeconomic fluctuations have a certain influence on the level of capacity utilization. Under the uncertain economic, firms will hoard productive factors and labor, and this will reduce the level of capacity utilization. Excessive investment in fixed assets early will cause a decline in capacity utilization in the next period; previous capacity utilization has a certain genetic effect, it will promote the capacity utilization of next period positively.Excess capacity has been a representative problem in Steel industry for a long time, this article characterized the status of the steel industry, macroeconomic fluctuation will not exert significant effect on the output of steel industry's capacity utilization, but capacity utilization has a cross-correlation of itself. This phenomenon will be due to the Chinese background. The direction of future research is made on the basis of the above. In the future, it's imperative to monitor the industries that are most sensitive to macroeconomic fluctuation, establish a sound evaluation system of capacity utilization, and then form early-warning mechanism.