Analysis Of Current Situation In Agricultural Production At Minqin County,Gansu Province

Minqin County of Gansu Province plays an important role in the ecological sustability in China.The degradation of its ecological system is becoming one of the main limiting factors of local agricultural development.Therefore,the current situation in agricultural production of Minqin county was analysed by the mathematical prediction model and grey correlation analysis method based on the data collectd from household survey,from the local government officers and extension officers,and from the existed literature.Suggestions dervied from the study were proposed in sustainable development in agricultural production for the county.The main results were presented below.1.Currently,output from cropping production accounted for 77%of total agricultural output value in the county,whie livestock production accounted for only 22%.However,the input-output ratio of livestock production is higher than cropping production,which the former is 2.77 and the later is only 2.48.2.Among the cropping sector the planting areas for cereals and cash crops are much bigger than that of forages.The planting areas of cereals and cash crops are 13 times and 26 times of the area of forages.However,the output-input ratio of cereals is lower than forages,with wheat of 2.0 and maize of 1.7;sunflower,melons,peppers and cotton are 4.8,4.7,4.5,2.1,respectively;lucerne is as high as 7.4.3.Among the factors affecting crop production,the inputs of science and technology and policy have the largest impact which is followed by water resources,available labour-force,fertilizers and others.4.In the livestock production,pigs have the lowest output-input ratio which is only 1.4.On the other hand;sheep,goats and cattle show much better output-input ratio than pigs,which reach 3.6,3.3 and 2.0,respectively.5.The suggestions for the sustainable development of Minqin county include increasing the inputs of science and technology,reducing the cereal growing area and increasing lucerne planting and sheep and cattle production so that a grassland farming system could be established and sustainable development of Minqin could be realised.