Studying The Evolution Trajectory And Forcasting Development Trend Of Emerging Technologies Based On Multi-source Heterogeneous Data

The emergence and development of emerging technologies could lead to changes in existing industry paradigm or the generation of new industries.With the rapid development of Internet and information technology,various kinds of information related to emerging technologies are recorded in different media,and becoming multisource heterogeneous data.Therefore,in the progress of emerging technologies,how to explore the evolution trajectory and development trend of emerging technologies by handling these multi-source heterogeneous data as early ad possible which is crucial for government research and development(R&D)and entrepreneur practice.The development trend of emerging technology is the synergies results of basic knowledge,the performance of technology,and the technological environment.Taking all influencing factors which have great impact on the development of emerging technologies is conducive to comprehensive depict the evolution path of emerging technologies,and further forecast their development trends.Scientific papers record advanced science discover in various academic fields could represent the basic knowledge of emerging technology.Patents contain great deal of technological details and could represent the performance of emerging technology.Website data(eg.website news and Twitter)include a lot of social awareness information,which is able to represent the technological information from the public's needs.From what has discussed above,the study bases on scientific papers,patents,Google website news,and Twitter,to construct a three dimensions model bases on technology-technologyenvironment,for deeply analyzing the characterizes of emerging technology,and further forecasting the development trend.Firstly,taking science papers as data source,and utilizing Lingo cluster algorithm is used to construct the evolutionary trajectory analysis model of emerging technology,and mining the semantic information within science paper.The evolution track of the emerging technology is explored from the knowledge level of technology.Seconedly,taking patents as data source,and utilizing a improved Subject-Action-Object(SAO)structure semantic analysis method to extract the SAO structure contained in abstract of patents,in order to construct a “problem and solution” model based on SAO structure for mining semantic information in patents related to emerging technology,and further identifying the characters within the evolution paths of emerging technology.Thirdly,taking Google news and Twitter as data source to construct a social awareness analysis model based on internet data,In this model,utilizing topic model and semantic analysis method to mine information within Google news and Twitter,in order to tracke the development process of emerging technology by analyzing social publics' response to,react to,and expect of emerging technology,and capture the weak signal of emerging technology development trends from technological environment perspective.Finally,from what has been discussed above,to construct a three dimensions analysis model based on technology-technologyenvironment for forecasting future development trend of emerging technology.The perovskite solar cell technology is selected as a case study to verify the validity and feasibility of the model.The study synthesizes multiple data sources which provide diverse knowledge about the evolution path of technological development,and are able to give a more complete picture of the technology trend.The study provides a new perspective for the evolution of emerging technology and the prediction of emerging technology trends.